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Prior +0.1%Core CPI +0.4% y/yPrior +0.5%Headline annual inflation remains unchanged and continues to border on deflation territory. The bad news for the SNB is that core annual inflation is seen trickling lower to 0.4%. For some context, core annual inflation was still hovering at 0.9% in February 2025. It’s a slow descend but one that continues to threaten a return to deflation for the Swiss economy.The bright side is that the US-Iran conflict might help to push up price pressures a little, even if temporary. However, it’s a double-edged sword as the SNB has to deal with a much stronger Swiss franc amid heightened geopolitical tensions. And they’re already having to step into the market this week it would seem here.Despite that, EUR/CHF is tracking back lower and down 0.2% again to 0.9058 currently. All eyes will be on the 0.9000 level to see what the SNB intervention appetite would be like in the days/weeks ahead.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Core CPI’s drop to 0.4% raises red flags for the SNB and traders alike. With headline inflation stagnant and core metrics slipping, the Swiss National Bank faces pressure to adjust its monetary policy. Traders should watch for potential shifts in interest rates, as a lower inflation rate could prompt the SNB to reconsider its tightening stance. This could lead to a weaker Swiss Franc against major currencies, particularly the Euro and Dollar. If the Franc weakens, it might create opportunities for forex traders looking to capitalize on currency pairs like EUR/CHF or USD/CHF. On the flip side, if inflation unexpectedly rebounds, it could catch the market off guard, leading to volatility in both the forex and equity markets. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic data releases and any statements from SNB officials for clues on future policy direction. The immediate focus should be on how the market reacts to these inflation figures, especially in the context of the broader economic landscape.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for SNB policy shifts as core CPI drops to 0.4%; a weaker Swiss Franc could impact EUR/CHF and USD/CHF trades.
