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The Swiss franc is not one that is talked about too often but as mentioned last week, it is certainly one key spot to take note of in the major currencies space. If not for geopolitical tensions, then at least in terms of added trade uncertainty now. That will just pile on the negativity to the overall risk landscape, keeping the franc as an attractive hedge.The key chart to watch remains EUR/CHF, with it having broken below key support at 0.92 at the start of the year. Is that a signal that the SNB is being more tolerant with regards to their intervention limits? Let’s take a look at what some analysts have to say.RBC”Over the last year CHF has behaved as the dominant risk-off currency in the G10. With Trump still in the White House for three more years, it is hard to imagine a period of geopolitical serenity emerging. This CHF strength is likely to endure in the near-term even though the economic data has been weak. We think FX intervention at some point over the next year is likely, but timing is a challenge. Instead of a spot trade a view on FX intervention may be better expressed through options, for example EUR/CHF call spreads.”Morgan Stanley”We argue that investors are underestimating and underpricing CHF strength. CHF is the most consistent and effective safe haven compared to its typical safe haven ‘peers’, and we think the SNB may be more tolerant of CHF strength than many investors think. We forecast EUR/CHF to fall to 0.87, below consensus and forwards, and see USD/CHF shorts as an attractive hedge for USD ‘bear case’ scenarios.”Credit Agricole”The CHF remains close to its strongest real levels since 2011. What is key is that EUR/CHF is holding up just above 0.91, about 1.5% lower than the averages of last October and January. While the SNB is surely watching those developments closely despite no stepping-up in anti-CHF jawboning, it may also have to consider the signalling effect of eventually defending a more important psychological level such as 0.90.”
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The Swiss franc’s rising profile amid geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty is worth watching closely. As traders, we often overlook the Swiss franc, but its safe-haven status could become increasingly relevant if global markets remain volatile. With geopolitical issues simmering, the franc might see inflows as investors seek stability. This could lead to a strengthening against major currencies like the euro and dollar, especially if risk appetite wanes. Keep an eye on key levels—if the franc breaks above recent highs, it could signal a broader trend shift. On the flip side, if trade uncertainties ease, we might see a reversal as traders flock back to riskier assets. So, monitor economic indicators from Switzerland and the EU, as well as any news on trade agreements. A strong economic report from Switzerland could further bolster the franc’s position, while negative news could trigger a sell-off. Watch for these dynamics as they unfold in the coming weeks.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on the Swiss franc’s movement against major currencies; a break above recent highs could indicate a shift towards safe-haven buying.
