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Of note, all but one of 29 economists from major houses expect the SNB to keep its policy rate unchanged throughout the year. The lone exception is Barclays, who forecasts that the Swiss central bank is to cut interest rates to -0.25% in Q2 2026 and hold that until year-end.And that means all 29 economists are expecting the SNB not to make any changes to monetary policy later this week. That is very much well expected even if the US-Iran conflict has complicated things for policymakers.In essence, a return to deflation is what the SNB wants to avoid. But amid a stronger franc currency, that will continue to weigh down price pressures in the Swiss economy. And that’s one key challenge that the central bank is facing up against right now.In light of that, 14 out of 15 economists who responded to an extra question said that the SNB should step up currency interventions to address further strengthening in the franc. I would say that is to no one’s surprise with EUR/CHF having already tested waters below 0.90 early last week.That rather than leaning towards unconventional monetary policy to try and solve the problems in Switzerland.Julius Baer notes that:”For the SNB, sharp Swiss franc appreciation is the most immediate concern. We continue to view foreign exchange interventions as the SNB’s primary tool to counter such sharp, safe-haven-driven CHF appreciation.”
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The consensus among economists suggests stability from the SNB, but Barclays’ forecast hints at future rate cuts that could shake things up. For traders, this means the current Swiss franc strength might be tested if Barclays’ prediction materializes. If the SNB does indeed hold rates steady, expect the franc to maintain its position against major currencies in the near term. However, if market sentiment shifts towards anticipating a rate cut, we could see increased volatility in the forex markets, particularly against the euro and dollar. Watch for any comments from SNB officials that might signal a change in outlook, as these could provide critical clues for positioning. Keep an eye on the 1.10 level for EUR/CHF; a break below could indicate a bearish trend for the franc if rate cuts loom on the horizon.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the EUR/CHF at the 1.10 level; a break could signal shifts in sentiment towards potential SNB rate cuts.
