Oil Technical Analysis with Iran Tensions Looming

Oil Technical Analysis Today: Crude Oil Bears Stay in Control Below $60, but Here Is Exactly When the Bias ChangesDate: January 23, 2026
Market: Light Crude Oil Futures (CL) | Micro Crude Oil (MCL)
Author: Itai Levitan, investingLive.comAs I show in my video above, this oil technical analysis for today focuses on the daily structure in light crude oil futures, where price action continues to favor the bears. That said, this is not a one-sided narrative. While the current evidence points lower, we remain very clear about where, when, and how the bearish outlook would be invalidated. Tight risk control and open-mindedness are essential, especially in crude oil.Key takeaways for traders and investorsCrude oil remains inside a well-defined price channel, keeping downside risk active.The $60 round number continues to act as a ceiling rather than support.The 20-day EMA near $59.11 is capping rallies and reinforcing bearish pressure.VWAP and value area levels around $59.77-$59.85 define the current battle zone.A sustained move above $59.85 would quickly weaken the bearish case.Light crude oil technical analysis: the higher-timeframe structureOn the daily chart of crude oil futures, price remains trapped inside a broader channel that has guided market behavior since mid-2025. The upper boundary originates from the June 23, 2025 high near $78.40, with a parallel structure validated again in mid-January 2026.What matters technically is not just the channel itself, but what failed. The most recent test of the upper boundary did not lead to upside continuation. Instead, price sold off sharply back toward the 20-day EMA, signaling disappointment for bulls. When price fails to sustain above resistance and falls back into a channel, it is usually bearish, not neutral.Why the $59-$60 zone is critical in oil price analysisCrude oil is currently compressed between just under $60 and the 20-day EMA at $59.11. This area is reinforced by important VWAP references:Today’s developing VWAP: ~$59.77Yesterday’s Value Area High: ~$59.84This creates a tight resistance band. As long as price trades below this zone, rallies tend to look like mean-reversion moves, not trend reversals. From an oil price prediction perspective, bulls still have work to do.Scenario-based crude oil outlook (not predictions)Bearish scenario – current base caseCondition: Price remains below $59.85 and inside the channel.Implication: Sellers retain control.Technical path: A move toward the lower channel region near $56.80-$57.00 remains technically valid.Risk management: Wider stops above $60 can still produce attractive risk-reward, especially when using MCL for position sizing flexibility.Bullish invalidation – where our bias changesCondition: Two consecutive hourly closes above $59.84-$59.85, followed by acceptance above the channel.Implication: The bearish thesis weakens rapidly.Next focus: Sustained trade above the channel would reopen upside scenarios and shift the analysis toward accumulation rather than distribution.This is how we stay flexible. The stance is bearish because of current information, not because of conviction without limits.Example trade idea shared with our community (educational)This is an example of how we translate oil technical analysis into disciplined trade execution, shared for educational purposes only.Short Crude Oil (Light Crude Futures)
Ticker: CL | Micro: MCL
Prices in futuresEntries1st sell: 59.69 (filled)2nd sell: 59.82 (pending at the time of publishing idea, but filled already since then)Stop60.03 (not reached yet a tthe time of this analysis but updated to $60.14 at the European Open as a last update)TargetsTP1: 59.39TP2: 59.17TP3 (runner, swing): 56.60 (assumed for RR calculation)Risk-reward breakdownAssumptions:Both sell orders filledAll entries same sizeAll exits same sizeAverage entry:
(59.69 + 59.82) / 2 = 59.755Risk (1R):
60.03 − 59.755 = 0.275TP1: RR ≈ 1.33RTP2: RR ≈ 2.13RTP3 (runner): RR ≈ 11.47RAverage RR (equal exits): ≈ 4.98RBig-picture oil outlook for patient tradersFor very patient traders and investors, a deeper move toward ~49.50 (roughly 17% below current prices) is technically possible over the coming weeks. This is not a forecast, but a structural observation. If even a small runner reaches that zone, the RR on that portion becomes extreme and can materially improve overall trade expectancy.Trade management philosophy: defense firstOur approach emphasizes defense before offence:Partial profits reduce emotional pressure.If and when TP1 is reached, unfilled entries are canceled and the stop is moved to entry.Capital protection comes first. Only then do we allow runners to work.Join our free Telegram channelIf you want to follow real-time oil analysis, trade ideas, and professional trade management, you are welcome to join our free Telegram channel:
👉 https://t.me/investingLiveStocksWe regularly share setups like this one, often minutes after execution, along with updates and risk management logic.We do not promise results.
This is not financial advice.
Everything is shared for educational purposes only.Crude oil can change quickly. Our job is not to predict, but to adapt with clear levels, clear invalidation, and tight risk control.UPDATE – Crude Oil Short

Our crude oil short has been stopped out.
That is part of trading. But even when we lose on execution,
we can still gain valuable information.

The key point:
Our map has not changed. See the video above for that “map perspective”. What failed this time was our previous bet on where price would sit on that map.

The technical framework remains relevant.

As long as bulls are able to keep price above certain
well-defined thresholds and technical patterns,
the bullish case holds together.

If that changes, we also know exactly at what (tight) price zone it changes.

This is important:
It is not about picking any random price and saying
“above this is bullish, below this is bearish.” The Value Area High of today now sits at 60.02 and the is the current “line in the sand” between bulls and bears (and bulls regained control).

Markets move through junctions.
Some technical junctions are far more important,
far more watched,
and far more meaningful than others.

Those are the levels that matter.
That is where bias changes.
And that is where tehnical decisions should be made.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

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