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FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEWOil prices are consolidating
between key levels as traders await new developments from the US-Iran
negotiations. On Wednesday, prices surged after reports suggested that US-Iran
talks scheduled for today were called off. The gains were eventually erased
after Iran’s foreign minister said the talks were still on.Given the low probabilities
of a quick agreement between US and Iran, we might continue to see oil prices
bid into the weekends as the risk of a military escalation remains high. On the macro side, OPEC+ held output steady as expected over the weekend. This continues
to support the market amid improving demand. In fact, unless we get more output
hikes or the market starts to bet on Fed’s rate hikes, the outlook for oil
prices should remain skewed to the upside. CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is consolidating between the 66.44 and 62.37 levels as negotiations
between US and Iran continue. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe,
so we need to zoom in to see some more details. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will
likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep
pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break
lower to pile in for a drop into the 58.80 support next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the choppy price action with no clear levels where to lean on.
From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to
reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into new highs, while
the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for new lows. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Oil prices are stuck in a tug-of-war, and here’s why that matters for traders right now: With SOL at $80.64, the volatility in oil markets is a crucial factor to watch. The recent back-and-forth on US-Iran negotiations is creating uncertainty, which can lead to sharp price swings. Traders should be aware that any definitive news could trigger a breakout or breakdown from current levels. If talks collapse, we might see a surge in oil prices, while a successful negotiation could lead to a drop. This kind of volatility can affect correlated assets like energy stocks and commodities, so keep an eye on those as well. Here’s the flip side: while many are focused on the immediate news, the underlying supply-demand dynamics in the oil market are still in play. If the negotiations drag on without resolution, we could see a longer-term consolidation phase. For now, monitor key technical levels around $80 and $82 for potential trading signals. A break above $82 could signal a bullish trend, while a drop below $80 might indicate a bearish shift. Stay alert for any news updates that could sway market sentiment.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch for oil prices to break above $82 or below $80, as either move could signal a strong trend shift.
