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A majority of members on the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Monetary Policy Shadow Board are urging the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to deliver another 25-basis-point cut at its November Monetary Policy Statement, taking the Official Cash Rate toShadow Board members said the New Zealand economy is beginning to recover from a low base but still has meaningful spare capacity, making a modest easing move appropriate to support demand. They argued that an additional small cut would help reinforce the recovery without sharply increasing inflation risks.However, a minority on the panel opposed further easing, warning that monetary policy should avoid becoming overly stimulatory at a time when inflation pressures could re-emerge. Those members favoured holding the OCR steady, emphasising caution over loosening too quickly.The RBNZ decision is due at 2pm New Zealand time on Wednesday November 26. Earlier:RBNZ rate cut expected this week, last one in the cycle? End of AUD/NZD bull run in sight
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The push for a 25-basis-point cut in New Zealand’s cash rate is a big deal for traders: it signals potential shifts in monetary policy that could impact the Kiwi dollar. With the NZIER’s Monetary Policy Shadow Board advocating for this cut, it suggests a consensus on the need for stimulus amid economic pressures. If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand follows through, we could see the NZD/USD pair react significantly, especially if it breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement for confirmation and any forward guidance. A cut could lead to increased volatility in the forex market, particularly against the AUD and USD, as investors reassess their positions based on New Zealand’s economic outlook. But here’s the flip side: if the RBNZ surprises the market by holding rates steady, we might see a short squeeze on the NZD, pushing it higher against its peers. So, watch for the official announcement and any hints about future policy direction—those could be the real market movers.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the NZD/USD closely ahead of the November Monetary Policy Statement; a 25-basis-point cut could trigger significant volatility and test key support levels.
