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MUFG sees Bank of England (BoE) holding this week, December rate cut still base case

MUFG expects the Bank of England to hold rates steady at this week’s policy meeting, with its first cut likely in December, senior currency analyst Lee Hardman said.“Our base case is still a cut in December — I don’t think one softer CPI print is enough,” Hardman said, adding that by then policymakers will have more data and fiscal context following the government’s budget.He noted that while a surprise move this week “wouldn’t be a huge shock,” the probability remains low. If the BoE does hold fire, Hardman said, “we might get an initial rally in the pound, but it will likely fade as markets refocus on December.”—Market pricing is around 30% for a rate cut. Goldman Sachs and Barclays are among those expecting a cut:Barclays expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates this weekGoldman Sachs is expecting the Bank of England to cut its benchmark Bank Rate by 25bp to 3.75% at its meeting on Thursday November 6, 2025.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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💡 DMK Insight

The Bank of England’s likely decision to hold rates steady this week is crucial for forex traders. With MUFG forecasting a potential rate cut in December, traders should be mindful of how this could impact GBP pairs. A steady rate could stabilize the pound in the short term, but if inflation data continues to show weakness, expect volatility as market participants adjust their positions ahead of the anticipated cut. Keep an eye on the upcoming CPI releases; a softer print could trigger a shift in sentiment. Additionally, watch for how the euro and dollar react, as cross-currency flows might amplify GBP movements. The real story is how traders position themselves before December—will they hedge against a rate cut or double down on GBP strength? This week’s meeting is a pivotal moment to gauge market sentiment and prepare for potential shifts in the coming months.

📮 Takeaway

Watch for the Bank of England’s policy meeting this week; a steady rate could signal stability, but prepare for volatility if inflation data weakens ahead of December’s expected cut.

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