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Impact of Iran war comes as inflation has been high. There is more risk of faster shift from oil prices into inflation expectations.Risk that series of supply shocks drive up inflation.Economy is not creating a lot of jobs right now.Bending but not breaking is still how to view jobs market.To me it feels like the job market is fragile.The job market does not feel robust. Useful to consider different scenarios around Iran war Very valuable that long-run inflation expectations are anchoredPaulson’s additional comments are balanced with inflation fear high but so is the risk to the job market. Regarding jobs, there tends to be a event that kicks companies into acting together. AI threatened to tip the applecart, but did not. The War in Iran may be the catalyst that starts the job losses beget job losses mentality. No company wants to be the one that does not cut jobs during a weakening economy. Stocks remain negative with the S&P down -0.90% and the NASDAQ index is down -1.28%.Yields have come off with the two-year now down -5.6 basis points at 3.928%. The 10 year is still up but only by 0.08% at 4.4238%. The high today reached 4.484%.Crude oil is surging with the price trading at $98.24. That is up around $3.75.Bitcoin’s moving sharply to the downside and trades at $65,930. The low price today reached $65,677, testing the low price going back to March 8
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The ongoing conflict in Iran could trigger a significant spike in oil prices, and here’s why that matters for inflation: As tensions rise, supply disruptions are likely, which could push oil prices higher. This isn’t just about the cost of gas; rising oil prices often lead to increased transportation and production costs, feeding directly into inflation expectations. With inflation already elevated, any further shocks could solidify a more aggressive stance from central banks, impacting interest rates and, consequently, the forex markets. Traders should keep an eye on the correlation between oil prices and inflation metrics, especially as we approach key economic reports. On the flip side, while the job market shows signs of resilience, it’s not creating enough momentum to offset these inflationary pressures. If the job market weakens further, it could lead to a more cautious approach from the Fed, potentially stabilizing or even lowering rates in the long term. Watch for key resistance levels in oil prices and inflation indicators to gauge market sentiment and adjust your trading strategies accordingly.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor oil price movements closely; a breakout above key resistance could signal rising inflation expectations and impact forex pairs sensitive to interest rates.
