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January FOMC preview: Fed seen on hold with little new guidance

The January FOMC meeting is expected to pass quietly, with rates on hold and markets focused on Powell’s tone rather than policy action.January FOMC meeting, Fed widely seen holding rates unchangedPowell comments on labour market and neutral rate in focusPolitical context may overshadow policy guidanceGoldman sees two Fed cuts in 2026, starting mid-yearThis week’s January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to deliver few surprises, with policymakers seen holding interest rates steady and avoiding any major policy signals, according to major Wall Street banks.BofA Securities says the meeting is likely to be quiet, with Chair Jerome Powell expected to strike a cautious tone at his press conference. While policy changes are unlikely, investors will listen closely for Powell’s assessment of December’s drop in the unemployment rate and his views on whether strong economic momentum is consistent with a higher neutral rate of interest.BofA also flags that political considerations may feature more prominently than policy guidance, as the Fed seeks to reinforce its independence and avoid fuelling market speculation around the near-term rate path.A similarly subdued outlook is shared by Goldman Sachs, which expects the Fed to maintain current rates with broad committee support. Goldman sees Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman backing the decision, leaving Stephen Miran as the likely lone dissenter.Looking beyond January, Goldman expects the Fed to remain on hold for several months, forecasting two rate cuts in 2026, with easing most likely to begin around June. For now, both banks see the Fed content to wait for clearer evidence on inflation, labour market dynamics and financial conditions before adjusting policy.Overall, the January meeting is expected to reinforce the Fed’s patient stance, with markets likely to treat the event as a checkpoint rather than a catalyst.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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💡 DMK Insight

The upcoming January FOMC meeting is shaping up to be a non-event, but here’s why traders should pay attention: Powell’s tone could signal future rate cuts. With the Fed likely holding rates steady, the focus will shift to Powell’s comments on the labor market and the neutral rate. If he hints at a dovish stance, it could ignite bullish sentiment across equities and risk assets. Traders should keep an eye on how this impacts the dollar, as a softer tone could weaken it, potentially boosting commodities like gold. Conversely, if Powell maintains a hawkish tone, expect volatility in both forex and crypto markets. Watch for any shifts in market expectations regarding rate cuts, as Goldman Sachs predicts two cuts this year. This could create ripples across correlated assets, especially if traders start pricing in those cuts sooner than expected. In the short term, monitor the S&P 500 and gold prices for reactions post-meeting. Key levels to watch are the 4,000 mark for the S&P and $1,800 for gold. A break above these could signal a bullish trend, while a failure to hold could lead to a pullback.

📮 Takeaway

Watch Powell’s tone at the January FOMC meeting; a dovish hint could weaken the dollar and boost gold above $1,800.

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