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FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEWGold is still stuck in a tight consolidation
just above the 5000 level as traders await the US NFP and CPI reports. Nothing has changed since Monday. The
fundamentals are still skewed against rising prices due to improving US data (not
considering the December reports) and easing geopolitical tensions. Today, we will get the US
NFP report and that’s going to be very important for gold. In fact, the market
is pricing 60 bps of easing for the Fed this year, so there’s a high risk of a
hawkish repricing in case the data comes out strong. In such a scenario, we
will likely see gold selling off and potentially reaching new lows.On the other hand, a weak
report should strengthen the case for more Fed easing and might even see
traders bringing forward rate cut bets as some Fed members expressed scepticism
about labour market stabilisation. That should give gold a boost and trigger a
break above the key resistance around the 5100 level.GOLD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can
see that gold continues to consolidate just above the 5000 level as traders
await new catalysts for the next major move. If we get another selloff into the
trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to
position for a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand,
will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 4000 level
next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 5100 level. We can expect
the sellers to step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to
position for a drop into the trendline targeting a breakout. The buyers, on the
other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into new
all-time highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection around
the resistance, while the buyers will look for a break. If the price drops into
the trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in there with a defined risk
below the trendline targeting a break above the resistance. The sellers, on the
other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the
next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US NFP report. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US CPI report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Gold’s stuck above 5000, but traders are on edge ahead of key US data releases. With the NFP and CPI reports looming, the market’s waiting game could lead to volatility. If the data shows stronger-than-expected job growth or inflation, we might see gold prices dip further as traders shift to risk-on assets. The current consolidation suggests a lack of conviction, and any break below the 5000 level could trigger stop-loss orders, pushing prices down even more. Conversely, if the reports disappoint, gold might find a lifeline, but that seems less likely given the improving US economic indicators. Keep an eye on the 5000 mark—it’s a psychological level that could dictate short-term trading strategies. Also, watch for reactions in correlated assets like silver and platinum, which often move in tandem with gold. The real story is how traders react to the data; a surprise could lead to significant price swings in either direction.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the 5000 level closely; a break below could signal further declines in gold prices, especially with NFP and CPI reports coming up.
