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Prior 55.0Composite PMI 50.3 vs 53.8 expectedPrior 53.8Key findings:Activity growth moderates, despite stronger rise in new business
Inflationary pressures cool
Confidence fades while jobs growth remains slight
Comment:Commenting on the PMI data, Nils Müller, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:
“The Italian private sector cooled as 2025 drew to a close. After manufacturing slipped back into contraction, services also
cooled markedly, with the HCOB Italy Services PMI falling to 51.5 in December from November’s just over two-and-a-halfyear high of 55.0. While the index remained above the 50.0 threshold, signalling continued growth, the pace was modest
and weaker than the full year average.
“The slowdown in activity came despite a notable improvement in demand conditions. New business inflows rose sharply
and at the fastest rate in 20 months, driven largely by domestic clients and successful marketing efforts. Export orders
slipped fractionally, indicating a sustained but only mild setback in international sales. Employment growth remained slight,
as firms balanced capacity with workloads, and backlogs continued to decline.
“Price dynamics offered some relief. Input cost inflation eased from November and fell below trend, even though wage
pressures and higher operating expenses persisted. Service providers were able to pass on some of these costs, but charge
inflation softened, pointing to margin pressures. Business confidence stayed positive, with expectations for higher activity in
2026 being supported by marketing investment and the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics, though sentiment slipped further
below its historical average.
“Overall, December’s PMI data indicate that Italy’s private sector enters 2026 with growth intact but having lost steam. The
service sector remains the key driver of expansion, underpinned by strong domestic demand, while manufacturing continues
to weigh on the composite index. With confidence slipping and external headwinds persisting, the outlook for early 2026 is
more cautious.”
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The recent PMI data shows a cooling in Italy’s private sector, and here’s why that matters: With the Composite PMI dropping to 50.3 from a prior 55.0, traders should be wary of potential economic slowdown signals. This decline indicates that while new business is rising, overall activity growth is moderating, which could lead to reduced consumer spending and investment. Inflationary pressures easing might sound good, but it often reflects weakening demand rather than a robust economy. For forex traders, this could impact the euro, especially if the trend continues, as it may prompt the ECB to reconsider its monetary policy stance. Watch for key support levels in EUR/USD around 1.05; a break below could trigger further selling. On the flip side, if confidence rebounds or job growth picks up, we might see a quick reversal. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators and sentiment reports to gauge whether this PMI dip is a one-off or part of a larger trend. The next few weeks are crucial for assessing the euro’s trajectory, especially against the backdrop of broader EU economic conditions.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor EUR/USD around the 1.05 support level; a break could signal further downside as PMI data reflects a cooling economy.
