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Trump on Iran: Going to be hitting them very hard over the next weekTrump claimed Iran was “about to surrender” a day before the Supreme Leader vowed to fightHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events?Why the US dollar is skyrocketing if rate hike bets increase for other central banks?Spain February final CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelimFrance February final CPI +0.9% vs +1.0% y/y prelimUK January monthly GDP +0.0% vs +0.2% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 13 March 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?It’s been a pretty volatile session despite the lack of market-moving news or data releases. The main mover was the US dollar as the greenback extended the gains to a 4-month high amid the unwinding of the record bearish positioning reached in February. The US indices fell into new weekly lows at the start of the session but eventually recovered all the losses and are now trading positive on the day.In terms of economic data, the main highlight was the monthly UK GDP. The data came in lower than expected and weighed on the pound as weakening growth coupled with higher inflation expectations and rate hike bets is an awful recipe.Axios was out with a scoop reporting that Trump claimed Iran was “about to surrender” in a virtual G7 meeting on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the following day, the new Iran’s Supreme Leader vowed to keep fighting and block the Strait of Hormuz to put pressure on Iran’s enemies.Lastly, during a Fox interview, Trump pledged to hit Iran very hard over the next week. This could lead to some hedging into the weekend in the American session.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Trump’s aggressive stance on Iran could trigger volatility in the forex markets, especially for the US dollar. With the Supreme Leader’s defiance, geopolitical tensions are rising, which often leads to a flight to safety—typically boosting the dollar. Traders should keep an eye on interest rate expectations, as any shifts could amplify this trend. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path, we might see the dollar strengthen further, impacting currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Watch for key resistance levels in the dollar index; a break above could signal further bullish momentum. Conversely, if tensions de-escalate unexpectedly, we could see a rapid reversal, so stay nimble and monitor news closely for sudden shifts in sentiment.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on the dollar index; a break above key resistance could signal further strength amid rising geopolitical tensions.
