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FX market still has not grasped full impact of energy shock – Goldman SachsEURUSD keeps the bearish bias intact amid the US-Iran war; Focus stays on negotiationsEuropean stocks keep the calm today but set to cap one of the worst months in recent yearsEurozone headline inflation picks up in March as energy prices surge on Middle East warECB’s Muller: Current baseline projection could be already too optimisticThe Nasdaq bounces as Trump is reportedly open to end the war without Hormuz conditionGermany March unemployment change 0k vs 2k expectedThree Chinese ships confirmed to have passed through Strait of HormuzGold consolidates awaiting potential US-Iran deal; Trump’s next move crucialFrance March preliminary CPI +1.7% vs +1.6% y/y expectedWhat are the main events for today?German import prices move up slightly in February, just before the US-Iran war impactUK March Nationwide house prices +0.9% vs -0.1% m/m expectedGermany February retail sales -0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expectedUK Q4 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q prelimFX option expiries for 31 March 10am New York cutRisk sentiment on the up but is it another false dawn?The highlight of the session was the Eurozone inflation data for March. The data missed estimates but still showed an annual increase to 2.5% vs 1.9% prior due to elevated energy prices. Core inflation hasn’t been impacted yet as the annual rate fell to 2.3% vs 2.4% prior. This clearly shows that inflation conditions were pretty much perfect before the war started.The main story today though has been the WSJ report released in the APAC session saying that Trump would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. This has led to some cautious optimism in the markets as stocks rebounded, oil prices eased and the US dollar pulled back. Trump basically confirmed the report just a few moments ago as he said in a Truth Social post that countries affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure should get the oil themselves as the US won’t be there to help anymore.It feels like a deal is really coming at this point and we could see the war ending before the April 6 deadline, so keep a close eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The FX market’s failure to fully price in the energy shock could lead to volatility ahead. With EURUSD maintaining a bearish bias, traders should be cautious as geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict loom large. If negotiations falter, we could see a significant shift in market sentiment, especially with Eurozone inflation rising. This backdrop suggests that the Euro might struggle against the dollar, particularly if inflation data continues to surprise to the upside. Traders should monitor the 1.05 level for EURUSD; a break below could trigger further selling pressure. On the flip side, if negotiations yield positive outcomes, we might see a short squeeze in the Euro, making it essential to stay alert to news developments and market reactions. Keep an eye on energy prices as well, as they could ripple through related assets and influence central bank policies across Europe and the US.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for EURUSD around the 1.05 level; geopolitical developments and inflation data will be key drivers in the coming days.
