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ICYMI: Goldman Sachs & Barclays warn sustained oil surge could push US inflation toward 3%Trump advisers urge Iran war exit plan amid epic oil price surge. Epic Blunder?Recap – Japan upgrades Q4 GDP to 1.3% on strong investment, Iran war clouds outlookPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8982 (vs. estimate at 6.8891)Iran plans shipping levies in Gulf. Trump warns massive retaliation if oil flows disruptedAustralian business confidence turns negative as conditions hold steady (pre war survey)Iran rejects Trump’s claims of progress in war, warns regional oil exports could haltUK consumer spending remains subdued as inflation fears rise and wage growth firmsJapan Q4 GDP final revision improves from a porr preliminary resultJapan January household spending unexpectedly falls 1.0% vs year agoAustralian consumer sentiment rebounds slightly but inflation fears surgeIran war-driven oil surge pushes markets to price in new European rate hikesTrump says Strait of Hormuz does not matter to the USTrump says again Iran war will end soon, but says not this weekIran signals Hormuz safe passage to countries expelling U.S. and Israeli diplomatsTrump spoke with Republicans, still talking toughinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 9 Mar:M arkets rebound as oil slides on SPR hopesAnnouncement could be soon (ICYMI: US considers easing Russian oil sanctions)At a glance;Oil markets remained extremely volatile after Monday’s historic intraday swing in WTI crude.Donald Trump delivered mixed messages on the Iran war, alternating between suggesting the campaign is largely complete and warning it will continue until victory is secured.Trump also warned Iran would face much heavier bombing if it disrupts oil flows from the region.Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded defiantly, saying Tehran will determine when the war ends and threatening to halt regional oil exports if attacks continue.Oil prices eased slightly in Asia ahead of G7 energy ministers’ talks on a possible coordinated release of emergency reserves.Japan’s GDP was revised sharply higher for Q4 2025, supported by strong capital expenditure, while FX markets were mostly quiet with the yen firmer and gold higher.Oil markets continued to swing after Monday’s dramatic surge and reversal in crude prices. Front-month WTI recorded the largest intraday trading range on record outside of the extreme volatility seen during the COVID period.The turbulence has been driven primarily by the escalating war involving Iran and uncertainty surrounding its potential impact on energy supplies.Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump added to the confusion. On Monday he suggested the military campaign was already largely accomplished and progressing faster than expected, describing the operation as close to completion. At the same time he stressed the conflict was not yet finished, saying the United States had not achieved enough and that the war would continue until a decisive victory was secured.The messaging was contradictory, with Trump describing the situation as both nearing completion and only the beginning of a broader effort. He also warned that the United States would escalate its military response significantly if Iran attempted to disrupt oil shipments from the region.Iran signalled it intends to resist that pressure. The country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded to Trump’s remarks by stating that Tehran would determine when the conflict ends. It also warned that if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, Iran would prevent any oil exports from leaving the region.Oil prices have eased somewhat in Tuesday’s Asian session as traders look ahead to discussions among G7 energy ministers later today. The group is expected to consider a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves to stabilise markets, with reports suggesting a joint release of roughly 300–400 million barrels could be under discussion.Away from geopolitics, Japan released revised economic data showing stronger-than-expected growth at the end of last year. Fourth-quarter GDP was upgraded sharply to 1.3% annualised from an initial estimate of 0.2%, largely reflecting a surge in business investment. Private consumption was also revised higher, though more recent data showed household spending falling in January.In currency markets, the yen gained modestly while broader moves across major FX pairs remained relatively subdued. The U.S. dollar edged slightly higher overall, while gold prices rallied as investors maintained demand for safe-haven assets amid the geopolitical uncertainty.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Oil prices are surging, and here’s why that matters for inflation and trading strategies: Goldman Sachs and Barclays are sounding the alarm that a sustained rise in oil prices could push US inflation toward 3%. This is significant for traders, especially those in the commodities and forex markets, as inflationary pressures often lead to volatility in currency pairs like USD/CNY. With the PBOC setting the USD/CNY reference rate, any shifts in oil prices could directly impact the yuan’s strength against the dollar. Traders should keep an eye on the correlation between oil prices and inflation metrics, as a jump in inflation could prompt the Fed to adjust interest rates sooner than expected, affecting both forex and equity markets. On the flip side, while some may view the oil surge as a negative for the economy, it could also signal increased demand and economic recovery, particularly if Japan’s upgraded GDP forecast holds. Traders should monitor key levels in oil futures and inflation indicators closely. Watch for any break above recent highs in oil prices, as that could trigger further market reactions and set the stage for potential trades in related assets like energy stocks or inflation-linked bonds.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on oil price movements and inflation indicators; a sustained rise could impact USD/CNY and prompt Fed rate adjustments.
