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US initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimateUS February trade balance -57.30 billion vs -61.00 billion expectedCanada February trade balance -5.74B vs -2.25B expectedTrump: The biggest bridge comes tumbling down. It is time for Iran to make a dealIran drafts protocol with Oman for Strait of Hormuz trafficFed’s Williams: Monetary policy is well-positioned to manage risksBaker Hughes total rig count 548 versus 543 previouslyPres Trump fires Attorney General Pam BondiFed’s Logan: I wasn’t convinced inflation was easing enough even before the war startedTesla Q1 deliveries 358K vs 372K expectedMarkets:WTI crude oil up $11.25 to $111.38Gold down $84 to $4672S&P 500 up 0.1%US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 4.30%USD leads, GBP lagsThe key to understanding today’s price action is to look further out the oil curve. There was a massive bid in front month and second month oil futures but it cooled from there and December WTI was up just 38-cents to $71.77.After an initial rout, the stock market took solace in that and it led to buying the dip. Yes, Trump may have extended the timeline for peace but the market senses an inevitable TACO in an unpopular war. Ultimate, the S&P 500 eeked out a small again after falling 100 points in the pre-market. The gains were generally broadly dispersed and may have been helped by short covering ahead of a long weekend (markets are closed Friday).The FX market tended to side with oil as the US dollar strengthened but it wasn’t a runaway bid. The fear is growing that emerging markets will soon start to face genuine shortages that lead to real economic problems. The first hints of the turn in the market came in fixed income as bonds gained a bid. Yields ultimately finished lower and that could reflect a flight to safety or an expectation that the Fed won’t have to hike rates.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Jobless claims dropped to 202K, and here’s why that matters for traders: The lower-than-expected jobless claims signal a resilient labor market, which could influence the Fed’s next moves on interest rates. With the Fed’s Williams hinting at monetary policy adjustments, traders should keep an eye on how this affects risk appetite across markets, particularly in crypto and forex. If the Fed leans towards maintaining or increasing rates, we might see a stronger dollar, which historically pressures altcoins like ADA. Currently priced at $0.25, ADA could face resistance if the dollar strengthens, especially if traders start to shift towards safer assets. On the flip side, the trade balance improvements in both the US and Canada could indicate a stronger economic outlook, potentially boosting investor confidence in riskier assets. Traders should watch for ADA’s price action around key support levels, particularly if it approaches the $0.23 mark. A break below that could trigger further selling pressure, while a bounce could signal a buying opportunity as traders digest these economic indicators.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor ADA closely around the $0.23 support level; a break could lead to further downside, while a bounce might present a buying opportunity.
