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Lido Staked Ether Rate cuts by year-end (2026)Fed: 61 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoE: 36 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)Rate hikes by year-end (2026)BoC: 22 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)ECB: 6 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)BoJ: 49 bps (96% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBA: 40 bps (76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 41 bps (98% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)SNB: 7 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)This week we had a few central bank policy announcements, but the market pricing didn’t change much following the releases. In fact, the central banks just delivered on expectations and didn’t offer much in terms of forward guidance, keeping market bets steady.The main events though, were the US NFP and CPI reports. Both came out much softer than expected but were taken with a pinch of salt given the shutdown related issues. Nonetheless, the market pricing turned a bit more dovish on the Fed, with the total easing for 2026 going from 56 bps to 61 bps.Next month we’ll get a clearer picture on the US labour market and inflation. If the data were to come out soft again, or at least validate what we’ve seen this week, then the Fed might cut much sooner than expected.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The Fed’s rate cut expectations are shifting market sentiment, and here’s why that matters: With a 76% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting, traders are recalibrating their positions. The Fed’s stance could influence the USD’s strength, impacting forex pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. If the Fed holds steady while the BoE and ECB also signal no changes, we might see a consolidation phase in these pairs. But keep an eye on the BoC’s 22 bps rate hike expectation—if they follow through, it could strengthen the CAD against the USD. The broader context here is the interplay between central bank policies. If the Fed remains dovish while other banks hold or hike rates, it could lead to a weaker dollar. Traders should monitor key levels like 1.10 for EUR/USD and 1.25 for GBP/USD. A break below these levels could signal further downside. Watch for economic data releases that could sway these probabilities, especially inflation figures and employment reports in the coming weeks.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for key levels at 1.10 for EUR/USD and 1.25 for GBP/USD; a break below could signal further weakness in the dollar.
