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Looking at the other US data released today in summary:US Durable goods orders for Oct -2.2% vs -1.5% est. Prior 0.5% revise from 0.7% (lower)Ex transportation 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Prior 0.6% revised 0.7% (lower)nondefense capital ex air October 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Prior revised lower to 0.9% from 1.1%.Ex defense -1.5% versus +0.1% priorClick HERE for the full report.Summary of Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (November 2025)The Federal Reserve’s released Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data for November and it shows that industrial production staged a modest recovery in November after a tepid October. While the headline index beat expectations, capacity utilization remains steadyKey Data vs. Expectations & PriorIndustrial Production (IP):November Actual: +0.2%.Estimate: +0.1% (Beat).October Revised: -0.1% (Originally reported as flat).Capacity Utilization:November Actual: 76.0%.Estimate: 75.9% (Slight Beat).October Revised: 75.9%.Context: This rate remains 3.5 percentage points below the 1972–2024 average of 79.5%.Major Industry Group BreakdownManufacturing: Remained unchanged (0.0%) in November after a -0.4% decline in October. Mining: Jumped +1.7% in November, a sharp reversal from the -0.8% contraction in October. Utilities: Decreased -0.4% in November after a volatile +2.6% surge in October.Market Group PerformanceFinal Products: Increased +0.4%, led by a recovery in consumer goods (+0.3%) and business equipment (+0.3%).Construction: Continued to weaken, falling -0.6% in November following a steep -1.1% drop in October.Materials: Rose +0.2% after remaining flat in the prior month.Capacity Utilization by StageCrude: Rose to 83.7% (from 83.0% in October).Primary & Semifinished: Fell slightly to 75.4%.Finished: Edged up to 73.7%.The “Why” Behind the NumbersWhile the +0.2% IP growth beat the 0.1% forecast, the broader trend reveals a stagnant manufacturing sector. The “beat” was largely fueled by a rebound in mining rather than a resurgence in factory output. Persistent headwinds, including tariff uncertainty and slowing discretionary consumer spending, continue to keep capacity utilization (76.0%) near levels seen during previous economic soft patches.The Trump initiatives to bring back manufacturing to the US should lead to larger numbers down the road. Of course it takes time to build the capacity.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Durable goods orders dropping 2.2% is a red flag for the economy and here’s why: This significant miss against expectations could signal weakening consumer demand and business investment, which are crucial for economic growth. Traders should be wary of how this data might impact the broader market, especially sectors sensitive to economic cycles like manufacturing and retail. If this trend continues, we could see a ripple effect on equities and commodities, potentially leading to increased volatility in those markets. Keep an eye on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, as they often react sharply to economic data like this. Also, the revisions to previous months’ data—lowering growth rates—suggest that the economy might not be as robust as previously thought. This could lead to a shift in Fed policy expectations, which is something to monitor closely. Watch for any comments from Fed officials in the coming days that might hint at how this data influences their outlook. The immediate focus should be on key support levels in major indices, particularly if we see further negative surprises in upcoming economic reports.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for reactions in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones as durable goods orders signal potential economic weakness; key support levels are crucial to monitor.
