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I would have expected the Supreme Court decision to be a negative for gold, as it opens the pathway to a reversal of tariffs and a re-affirmation of the dollar-based system.Instead, the market seems to be taking it as a sign of further turmoil and uncertainty, which is gold bullish. The ongoing worries about a war in Iran are certainly underpinning that belief. Yesterday, Trump said Iran had 10 or “maybe 15” days to make a deal and he later confirmed that there could be a per-emptory strike to force Iran’s hand.On the seasonal side, the Lunar New Year holidays are traditionally the end of a seasonal period of strength for gold but it hasn’t exactly unfolded that way this year. Gold opened the week lower but it’s steadily climbed back and unless it drops $30 late, it will post the highest ever weekly close and only the second one above $5000/oz.For the week ahead, the focus is going to be on tariffs and Iran again. We are expecting Trump to re-impose tariffs via Section 122 but the details of that are unclear, including exemptions like USMCA. He said they will be 10% but the authority grants him to impose up to 15%, which I presume he’s holding back in case he needs to retaliate.As for gold, I wouldn’t celebrate too much about the record high. The key short term level is last week’s high of $5118 and if it can break that, we can start talking about a re-test of the record near $5600.That said, it’s impressive that gold has held so close to the highs despite ample opportunities and reasons for some meaningful profit taking. There is clearly an underlying bid for gold in the market and unless it disappears, it’s tough to be overly bearish here.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
The Supreme Court’s decision is shaking up expectations, and here’s why that’s crucial for gold traders: Typically, a ruling that could reverse tariffs and strengthen the dollar would weigh on gold prices. However, the market’s reaction suggests a growing fear of instability, pushing gold higher as a safe haven. This shift indicates that traders are prioritizing protection against potential economic fallout over traditional correlations with the dollar. If gold continues to gain traction, watch for resistance levels around recent highs, as a break could signal a stronger bullish trend. Conversely, if the dollar strengthens unexpectedly, it could lead to a sharp correction in gold prices. Keep an eye on broader economic indicators, especially inflation data and geopolitical developments, as they could amplify this volatility. The real story here is that while the dollar might seem stronger, the underlying fear in the market could keep gold in demand. For now, traders should monitor gold’s performance closely, especially if it approaches key technical levels that could trigger further buying or selling pressure.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch for gold’s reaction around recent highs; a breakout could signal a bullish trend amid rising market uncertainty.
