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Prior was 47.0Key findings:Input cost inflation ticks up to 37-month highComment:Commenting on the PMI data, Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:
“This smells a bit like a recovery could be underway. Output has rebounded rather swiftly from the drop in December,
optimism about future output has risen from an already high level, and new orders have ticked up a bit. Hopes for a broader
recovery are supported by general anecdotal evidence. Manufacturers seem to see opportunities to pivot toward defencerelated production, where demand is rising amid geopolitical tensions and increased public spending on military goods. The
situation remains fragile, though. Companies are still drawing down their inventories at speed, and the backlog of work is
shrinking even faster than at the end of last year.
“Input prices are climbing again. Much of this seems tied to the sharp jump in natural gas and oil prices, both driven up by
cold weather across Europe and the US. Prices for metals like copper, nickel, and aluminium have also run higher in
January compared to December. Companies, however, have struggled to pass these cost pressures on to customers. At
best, they’ve managed to slow the ongoing three month decline in output prices, nothing more.
“Firms are continuing to shed jobs at a brisk pace. This likely reflects a combination of productivity enhancing measures and
a response to the weak demand environment of the past several years. Those companies that have streamlined their
production processes may find themselves well positioned if demand does pick up over the course of this year, as hinted by
the improvement in the future output index.”
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Input cost inflation hitting a 37-month high is a big deal for traders right now. This uptick suggests that businesses are facing rising costs, which could squeeze margins and impact pricing strategies. If output is rebounding, as suggested by the PMI data, it might indicate that companies are trying to pass these costs onto consumers. Traders should keep an eye on sectors that are sensitive to input costs, like manufacturing and consumer goods. The broader market context shows that inflationary pressures can lead to volatility, especially in equities and commodities. If inflation continues to rise, central banks might react, affecting interest rates and currency values. So, watch for key levels in related assets, particularly in commodities that could see price adjustments based on these input costs. The real story here is whether this recovery is sustainable or just a blip, so monitoring future PMI releases will be crucial for gauging economic health and potential trading opportunities.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on upcoming PMI data and input costs; rising inflation could impact margins and lead to volatility in equities and commodities.
