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Goldman Sachs is noting that even if the US-Iran conflict were to end soon, there will be lasting impact from the surge in energy prices on markets. And that is something that perhaps currency traders have not quite fully grasped just yet.For some context, the firm is arguing that the latest jump in energy prices will not be a temporary “blip”. Instead, it is looking more and more akin to a “genuine physical disruption”. And the risk of that becoming more embedded in markets will grow as the conflict drags on for longer.The firm has already raised its TTF gas price forecast for April to €55 per MWh, as Qatar’s LNG production remains threatened. That is up from their previous forecast of €36 per MWh. And if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, they foresee Brent crude oil keeping at the $100 to $110 range before stabilising.Taking all that into consideration, Goldman Sachs warns that the FX market may be a tad complacent – especially risk trades.”The dollar marked a fresh 2026 high last week as investors took stock of the burgeoning energy shock. While markets remain highly responsive to headlines, we are increasingly cognizant that the impact of higher energy prices over the last month (and for some time to come) will leave a more lasting imprint on FX markets even if the conflict comes to an end relatively soon.In short, the playbook for risk-on trades has shifted over the last month, which we do not think is fully reflected in market pricing or investor sentiment.”That is a fairly big warning, especially if any end to the US-Iran conflict still does not result in passage through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal. And at this point, it is hard to imagine Iran wanting to give up such control and leverage.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Goldman Sachs’ take on energy prices is a wake-up call for currency traders. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has already pushed energy prices higher, and even a resolution won’t erase the inflationary pressures that have built up. Traders need to understand that this isn’t just a short-term spike; it’s a shift in the macroeconomic landscape. Higher energy costs can lead to increased inflation, which central banks might respond to with tighter monetary policy. This could strengthen the dollar against other currencies, particularly emerging market currencies that are more sensitive to energy price fluctuations. Look at the correlation between energy prices and currency pairs like USD/BRL or USD/TRY. If energy prices remain elevated, those currencies could face downward pressure. Keep an eye on key levels—if USD/BRL breaks above recent highs, it could signal a stronger dollar trend. Watch for any shifts in Fed policy as well; a hawkish stance could further bolster the dollar. The real story is that traders need to prepare for a potentially prolonged period of volatility in currency markets as these dynamics play out.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor USD/BRL and USD/TRY closely; a break above recent highs could indicate a stronger dollar trend driven by persistent energy prices.
