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French trade deficit narrows further in 2025 as exports rebound

For some context, the French trade deficit is still on recovery mode after having hit its highest point in 2022 amid the whole Russia-Ukraine conflict. That drove up import prices for energy by almost double compared to 2021, resulting in a trade deficit of €161.7.As such, the narrowing to a deficit of €69.2 billion last year keeps with the improvement as once again the better showing is driven by energy developments. Despite the improvement in the trade deficit, it remains €11.1 billion higher in 2025 than its 2019 level. So, we’re not quite back to levels seen before the Covid pandemic just yet.Despite Trump tariffs and what is described in the report as an “unfavourable” exchange rate, French exports to the US are seen holding up last year (+0.3%) at €48.3 billion. In terms of total trade volume, both the US and China are almost on equal footing in terms of importance to France in 2025.And speaking of China, we’re seeing the same story with France as with Germany earlier. As before, China remains the largest source of France’s bilateral trade deficit. And this time largely due to imports rising by nearly 5% for the year. The jump was largely tied to an increase in imports of pharmaceutical products, which more than doubled (+131%) to €2.3 billion. But also, clothing and household appliances also showed increases last year with both accounting for ~12% of total imports from China.Adding to that, origin washing must be taken into account too with some Chinese goods perhaps reaching France indirectly through Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam. Imports from that region saw a marked increase of 14% last year, so there’s that to consider too.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

đź”— Source

đź’ˇ DMK Insight

The French trade deficit is showing signs of recovery, but here’s why that matters for traders: a narrowing deficit can signal improved economic conditions and potentially strengthen the euro. With the trade deficit having peaked at €161.7 billion in 2022 due to skyrocketing energy import prices, the recent narrowing indicates that France might be managing its imports better, which could lead to a more favorable balance of trade. This improvement could bolster the euro against other currencies, particularly if it aligns with other positive economic indicators like GDP growth or employment rates. Traders should keep an eye on the euro’s performance against the dollar, especially if it breaks above key resistance levels. However, it’s worth noting that while the deficit is narrowing, global economic uncertainties, including ongoing geopolitical tensions, could still impact trade dynamics. If the euro strengthens too quickly, it might hurt French exports, creating a potential flip side to this recovery narrative. Watch for any upcoming economic reports or central bank statements that could influence the euro’s trajectory.

đź“® Takeaway

Monitor the euro’s performance against the dollar; a break above key resistance levels could signal further strength as the trade deficit narrows.

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