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French business confidence fell roughly two points in February to 97 (unrounded 97.4) after the 99 (unrounded 99.3) reading in January. This puts a dent in the recovery optimism with this being the weakest estimate since October last year. Of note, the business climate continues to hold below the long-term average of 100 still. The last time the indicator was above the key threshold was all the way back in March 2024.Of note, we’re seeing a deterioration in both manufacturing and services confidence on the month. The former fell to 102 in February, down from 105 in January. Meanwhile, the latter dropped to 95 in February – down from 98 in the month before.Besides that, there were also notable declines in the retail trade climate (dropping to 98 from 99 before) and more importantly the employment climate. The latter continues to trend lower, indicating weakening labour market conditions in French economy. The index there falls to 93 (unrounded 92.7) in February, marking the lowest estimate since April 2021.The report here is one that tends to fly under the radar but it does provide some general idea of business activity sentiment in the French economy. The PMI data is no doubt more comprehensive but at least this doubles up as a secondary indication of how things are playing out on the ground.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
French business confidence just dropped to 97, and here’s why that matters: This decline signals a potential slowdown in economic momentum, which could ripple through the Eurozone. Traders should be wary, as lower business confidence often leads to reduced investment and spending, impacting GDP growth forecasts. With the reading now the weakest since October, it raises questions about the sustainability of the recovery. If this trend continues, we might see the Euro under pressure against the dollar, especially if the ECB feels compelled to adjust its monetary policy stance. Look for key levels around 1.05 for EUR/USD; a break below could trigger further selling. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators, especially employment data, as they could provide insight into whether this dip is a blip or part of a larger trend. The market’s reaction may also depend on how institutional investors interpret these signals, so watch for shifts in sentiment and positioning.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor EUR/USD closely; a drop below 1.05 could signal further bearish momentum as business confidence wanes.
