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Prior 47.8The final estimate is little changed from the preliminary reading as France’s manufacturing sector saw a modest jump in activity to round off the 2025 year. A strong rise in new export orders was the key reason in underpinning sentiment while employment conditions also returned to growth on the month. Meanwhile, output volumes also came
close to stabilising after November’s sharp and accelerated contraction. HCOB notes that:”2025 closes on a surprisingly upbeat note. Business conditions in France’s manufacturing sector improved in December,
with the PMI climbing back above the growth threshold to reach its highest level in three-and-a-half years. While this should
not obscure the structural challenges of recent years, it is nonetheless a step in the right direction. Looking ahead, the sector
could benefit from large-scale orders in defence and aerospace, particularly from abroad, as export demand has already
shown greater resilience than domestic orders in recent months. Still, persistent political instability and the resulting
uncertainty among businesses and households remain key headwinds for future prospects.
“After several months of contraction, production at French manufacturing plants broadly stabilised in December. Robust
export orders were a key support, even as pressure on supply chains and cautious customer behaviour continue to limit
output. Companies have also been meeting orders by drawing down inventories. Purchasing activity, which has been
declining since 2022, is now approaching stabilisation, potentially signalling that the sector may have reached its trough
heading into next year.
“The modest improvement in business conditions has prompted firms to raise prices again after three consecutive months of
cuts, likely aimed at stimulating sales. Input cost inflation remains subdued, providing some relief, but margin pressures will
persist if demand fails to strengthen further.”
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
France’s manufacturing sector just posted a modest uptick, and here’s why that matters: The final estimate of 47.8 indicates a slight improvement, primarily driven by a surge in new export orders. This could signal a rebound in demand, which is crucial for traders focused on European equities and the euro. A stronger manufacturing sector often leads to increased economic confidence, potentially influencing the ECB’s monetary policy decisions. If this trend continues, we might see upward pressure on the euro against the dollar, especially if the manufacturing PMI crosses the 50 mark, indicating expansion. However, it’s worth noting that while this is a positive sign, the overall PMI still indicates contraction. Traders should remain cautious and monitor related assets, like EUR/USD, for volatility. Key levels to watch are the 1.05 support and 1.07 resistance. If the euro breaks above 1.07, it could trigger more buying interest. Keep an eye on upcoming economic releases that could impact sentiment further.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for EUR/USD around 1.05 support and 1.07 resistance; a break above 1.07 could signal stronger bullish momentum.
