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Figure Heloc Williams did a fairly big 180 in supporting a December rate cut and these are his first comments since the decision.Looking ahead, his comments are generally neutral and wait-and-see tone regarding the path forward for rates. He downplays the rise in unemployment as “distortions” but also suggests the soft CPI data had “distortions” as well.The ‘sense of urgency’ line is notable but it certainly doesn’t rule out January, which is priced at about 25%.Feels pretty good about economy next year2025 GDP likely around 1-1.5%2026 GDP seen at around 2.25%Policy mildly restrictive, has some room to get back to neutralWith inflation above target mildly restrictive monetary policy is helpfulFed policy is ‘mildly restrictive,’ has some room to get back to neutralKey goal of monetary policy is about helping job marketDoesn’t have a ‘sense of urgency’ on changing monetary policyMonetary policy is well positioned to gather more informationThe data is broadly consistent with recent trends and recent Fed cutJobs data does not show sharp deterioration in hiring marketUnemployemnt rate may have been pushed up by distortions, but not a surprising readNew jobs data shows steady private sector job gainsCPI data may have been pushed down a bitCPI data had some distortions, will need more data to get good read on inflationSome of the new data has been encouraging and shows more disinflationWilliams is a permanent voter.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Williams’ shift to support a December rate cut signals potential volatility ahead for markets. His neutral stance on future rate paths, combined with the dismissal of rising unemployment as mere ‘distortions’, suggests a delicate balancing act. Traders should note that while the CPI remains soft, any unexpected shifts in economic indicators could trigger rapid market reactions. This is particularly relevant for forex pairs sensitive to interest rate changes, like USD/JPY or EUR/USD. If the Fed does proceed with a cut, expect a ripple effect across equities and commodities, especially gold, which often benefits in lower rate environments. Watch for any further comments from Williams or other Fed officials that could clarify the central bank’s direction, especially as we approach December. Key levels to monitor include the psychological 1.00 level for USD/JPY and the 1.05 resistance for EUR/USD, which could be tested depending on upcoming data releases and Fed communications.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on Williams’ comments and monitor USD/JPY around 1.00 and EUR/USD near 1.05 as potential breakout points ahead of the December rate decision.
