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Fed Miran on CNBC is saying: Hesitant to read too much into one month jobs report.Policy is mis-calibratedmonetary policy is too tight.Fed typically does not respond to oil prices.If anything biases me toward even more dovish policy.Hesitant to respond to oil prices until we know more It is hard to imagine what the new type of jobs will be. There is no pressure in rents right now.I never took the view that tariffs are a driver inflation.Apparel pushed through price increases in Q3 and Q4They expect they will be able to push price pressures back on their international suppliers. Neutral policy is like 2.5% to 2.75%The longer we are too restrictive the better chance we have employment numbers like we saw todayInflation expectations are all in ranges that they been in over the last several months.The point he raised about apparel prices highlights a broader issue in the inflation debate. If prices surged at an accelerated pace during the inflation spike, does that imply a period of outright deflation is needed to truly rebalance them? if wages don’t keep up, the net impact is negative on the consumer. The economy is increasingly two-tiered: inflation disproportionately hurts lower- and middle-income households while having far less impact on higher-income groups.As a result, even if higher prices – like in apparel or oil prices – prove to be a one-off shock that eventually levels off, the initial price increase still has real consequences. Once prices move higher, the cost burden remains, unless there is a deflationary rotation lower. At the same time, if employment growth slows – like it did today – workers lose bargaining power for higher wages. The result is a squeeze on purchasing power, with the lower and middle class bearing the brunt of the erosion. Stephen Miran is an American economist and policymaker serving as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Before joining the Fed, he worked as a senior adviser at the U.S. Treasury Department during the Trump administration, where he focused on economic policy, fiscal strategy, and financial markets. Miran is expected that he would resign from the Fed when It Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh takes over for Fed chair Powell in May.He is a dove who has argued for cutting rates since he became a board member (nominated by Pres. Trump)
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The Fed’s cautious stance on the jobs report signals potential shifts in monetary policy. Miran’s comments about mis-calibrated monetary policy and hesitance to react to oil prices suggest that the Fed may be leaning towards a more dovish approach. This could impact interest rates and, consequently, the forex market. If traders interpret this as a signal for lower rates, we might see a weakening of the dollar against major currencies. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators, especially inflation data, which could further influence the Fed’s decisions. A dovish pivot could also ripple through commodities, particularly oil, as lower rates might boost demand. However, there’s a flip side: if inflation remains stubbornly high, the Fed might have to recalibrate its approach, which could lead to volatility. Traders should monitor key levels in USD pairs and oil prices for any signs of reaction to these Fed comments. Watch for the next jobs report and inflation data as critical indicators of the Fed’s future moves.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for the next jobs report and inflation data; a dovish Fed could weaken the dollar and impact oil prices significantly.
