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Oil prices are marginally higher today as we watch and wait on Iran.Trump is out once again reminding everyone that an ‘armada’ is heading towards Iran and it’s even bigger than the one that went to Venezuela. That’s obviously a threat and will hang over any negotiation.This is the kind of thing that can get ugly fast and that’s why oil has rallied steadily from $59 on Jan 22 to $65.73 last. We’re at the point where there are two-way risks because this could also de-escalate or US attacks could avoid hitting oil infrastructure. Iran could also refrain from closing the Strait of Hormuz.It’s all a bit of a mess but I get the sense that it’s too early to be betting on conflict. Negotiations tend to drag for a little while and a US attack on the weekend would be seen negatively internationally without at least a token effort at negotiations. There’s room to disagree on that because the US looked like it might launch strikes two weeks ago.Again though, it’s going to matter what the US hits and how hard. Trump hates higher oil prices and for that reason, I just don’t think that oil is that big of a card to be played in this conflict. The old adage is to never chase a geopolitical move in oil and I think that’s where we are. Earlier in the week, I wrote that risks were underpriced but after a $3 move higher, I don’t think that’s the case anymore. The precious metals market is also a reminder that corrections can happen in a hurry (as if energy traders needed that reminder). Another spot to watch on the weekend is OPEC, which has a meeting scheduled on Feb 1. No big moves are expected but keep an eye on signaling around supplies and pricing. They’ve been a tough group to predict.Update:Trump says Iran does want to make a dealOnly they know the deadline for sureUpdate 2: Now oil is lower on the Trump comments.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Oil prices nudging higher amidst geopolitical tensions is a classic setup for volatility. With ADA currently at $0.31, traders should keep an eye on how oil price movements could influence broader market sentiment, especially in risk assets like cryptocurrencies. If tensions escalate, we could see a flight to safety, impacting not just oil but also crypto prices. The correlation between oil and market risk appetite is worth noting; if oil spikes due to conflict fears, expect a potential dip in ADA as traders pull back on riskier assets. Watch for key resistance levels in oil, as a breakout could further shake up market dynamics. On the flip side, if negotiations ease tensions, we might see a rebound in risk assets, including ADA. Keep an eye on the daily charts for ADA; a break above $0.33 could signal a bullish reversal, while a drop below $0.30 might trigger further selling pressure.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor ADA closely; a break above $0.33 could signal a bullish reversal, while geopolitical tensions in oil could impact risk appetite.
