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The EURUSD is keeping the bias lean to the downside ahead of the US GDP which will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The Q4 GDP is expected to show a rise of 3.0% with the following details:GDP Sales Advance 2.6% vs 4.5% priorDeflator 2.9%Core PCE price advances: 2.6%PCE Advanced 2.8%For the 3rd quarter:Personal Consumption (C): +2.34%Goods: +0.64%Services: +1.70 ppPrivate Investment (I): +0.03%Government Spending (G): +0.38%Net Trade (Exports − Imports): +1.66%Quick TakeConsumption was the primary growth engine in the quarter.Net exports were a large positive contributor (exports up / imports down).Government added modestly.Investment was essentially flat in terms of growth contribution.Also to be released at 8:30 will be:US personal income for December estimate 0.3% versus 0.3% last month.Personal consumption for December 0.4% versus 0.5% last month.PCE for December 0.3% vs 0.2% last monthPCE YoY 2.8% vs 2.8% last monthCore PCE 0.3% vs 0.2% last monthCore PCE YoY 2.8% vs 2.8% last monthThe EURUSD is trading modestly lower to start the US session as markets position ahead of the upcoming data release.From a technical perspective, the hourly chart shows that sellers were able to push the price below a key swing area between 1.1765 and 1.1778 yesterday — extending the downside move that began on Wednesday when the pair rotated lower from the 1.1860 area and moved away from its 100- and 200-hour moving averages. The decline reached a low of 1.1741 before buyers stepped in, prompting a corrective rebound that stalled at 1.17775 early in the Asian session.Selling pressure resumed through the Asian and into the early European session today, with the price dipping to 1.1744 — just three pips above yesterday’s low — before finding support once again. The pair has since bounced back into the prior swing zone, placing that 1.1765–1.1778 region back into focus heading into the US data.A move above this resistance area would shift short-term control back toward buyers and open the door for further upside momentum. Conversely, a break below the recent lows between 1.1741 and 1.1744 would reinforce the bearish bias, targeting 1.1726 next, followed by the 1.1700 level and the 100-day moving average at 1.1687.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The EURUSD is poised for a potential drop as traders brace for the US GDP data release. With the Q4 GDP expected to rise by 3.0%, the market is likely pricing in a stronger economic outlook, which could bolster the dollar. The prior GDP sales advance of 4.5% and a deflator at 2.9% suggest inflationary pressures are still in play, impacting the Fed’s monetary policy stance. If the actual GDP figures come in lower than expected, we could see a rapid reversal in the EURUSD, especially if it breaks below recent support levels. Keep an eye on the 1.0500 mark; a breach could trigger further selling. On the flip side, if the GDP exceeds expectations, it might solidify the dollar’s strength, pushing EURUSD lower. Traders should monitor the PCE price index closely, as it could provide insights into future inflation trends. The immediate focus is on the GDP release at 8:30 AM ET—this could set the tone for the EURUSD in the coming hours and days.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the 1.0500 support level in EURUSD closely; a break could signal further downside following the GDP release at 8:30 AM ET.
