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The dollar is sitting slightly higher today but is seeing modest gains against the likes of the euro and yen on the session. This comes as oil prices are continuing to stay underpinned with Brent crude oil hovering near $110 while US futures have dipped lower again. S&P 500 futures are now down 0.5% on the day. Adding to that, 10-year Treasury yields are also ramping up to hit 4.30% now.As much as US president Trump says that the war is ending soon, we’ll have to see it to believe it at the end of the day. And with each passing day that goes by, expect markets to grow more anxious as the energy disruption in the Middle East drags on.So far today, the dollar is bouncing back after some selling pressures yesterday. USD/JPY is now up 0.7% to 158.80 levels and on approach to testing back its 200-hour moving average (blue line):That is a key line in the sand as buyers will look to try and push back above that to regain some near-term control. The break of the key near-term level yesterday allowed for a quick drop towards 157.60 shortly after before dip buyers stepped in. So, keep a close watch on the level above as we look to US trading later today.Meanwhile, EUR/USD is also seen down 0.4% to 1.1540 levels at the moment:Buyers looked to have made a breakthrough yesterday, pushing past the 200-hour moving average (blue line). That was a key line in the sand limiting any upside pushes since the US-Iran conflict started. Upon a break of that, we saw a quick race towards 1.1600 before sellers stepped back in.Now, we’re starting to see the momentum wane with eyes back on the 200-hour moving average at 1.1530. That will be a key line in the sand to define the near-term momentum for the pair ahead of the weekend.After the central bank bonanza is over and done with this week, all the focus turns back to the Middle East. Headline risk remains paramount before we find a bit of a respite in the coming two days. Then, we will run it all back again on Monday.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The dollar’s slight uptick against the euro and yen signals a cautious market, and here’s why that matters: With Brent crude oil prices hovering near $110, inflationary pressures are likely to persist, impacting central bank policies. A stronger dollar could mean tighter monetary conditions, which might weigh on equities, particularly in the S&P 500. Traders should keep an eye on how these dynamics play out, especially if oil prices remain elevated. If the dollar continues to strengthen, it could lead to a shift in risk sentiment, pushing investors toward safer assets. Watch for key resistance levels in the dollar index, particularly if it approaches recent highs, as this could trigger further volatility in forex pairs and commodities alike. On the flip side, if oil prices start to retreat, it could alleviate some inflation concerns, potentially softening the dollar’s grip and allowing for a rebound in risk assets. So, keep an eye on oil price movements and the dollar index for potential trading opportunities.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the dollar index closely; a continued rise could signal tighter monetary conditions, impacting equities and commodities significantly.
