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Summary:China December exports and imports beat forecastsExports +6.6% y/y; imports +5.7% y/y in dollar termsDecember trade surplus $114.1bn2025 trade surplus hits $1.19tn on flat importsUS bilateral surplus eases slightly in DecemberChina closed 2025 with a stronger-than-expected trade performance, as December exports and imports both beat forecasts, underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on external demand even as domestic momentum remains uneven.Customs data showed December dollar-denominated exports rose 6.6% y/y, well above the Reuters poll forecast of 3.0% and slightly stronger than November’s 5.9% pace. Imports increased 5.7% y/y, sharply beating expectations for a modest 0.9% rise and accelerating from a 1.9% gain previously. As a result, China recorded a December trade surplus of $114.1 billion, marginally above the $113.6 billion consensus.In yuan terms, exports rose 5.2% y/y in December, while imports climbed 4.4% y/y, producing a trade surplus of CNY 808.8 billion. The divergence between dollar- and yuan-denominated figures reflects currency effects over the period but does not materially change the underlying picture of firm trade flows at year-end.For full-year 2025, China’s export performance remained resilient. Dollar-denominated exports rose 5.5% y/y, while imports were flat year-on-year, resulting in a record trade surplus of $1.189 trillion. In yuan terms, exports increased 6.1% y/y and imports edged up 0.5% y/y, with the annual trade surplus reaching CNY 8.51 trillion.The data highlight how China’s growth model continues to lean heavily on exports amid subdued domestic demand, particularly in consumption and private investment. Strong overseas shipments have been supported by competitive pricing, supply-chain dominance in manufactured goods, and continued redirection of exports toward non-U.S. markets as trade frictions persist.China’s December trade surplus with the United States narrowed slightly to $23.25 billion, from $23.74 billion in November. While the bilateral balance remains large, the modest easing suggests some rebalancing at the margin, even as trade tensions and tariff uncertainty continue to shape export patterns.Overall, the latest trade figures reinforce the view that China’s external sector remains a key stabiliser for growth heading into 2026. However, the scale of the surplus also risks intensifying trade scrutiny from major partners at a time when global protectionist pressures are rising.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
China’s December trade data is a game changer for global markets, especially for commodities and currencies. With exports up 6.6% year-over-year and imports rising 5.7%, this signals robust demand that could influence commodity prices and related currencies. Traders should keep an eye on the implications for the Australian dollar and other commodity-linked currencies, as China’s appetite for imports often drives their performance. The $114.1 billion trade surplus also suggests that China’s economy is resilient, which could lead to a stronger yuan in the short term. However, the easing of the US bilateral surplus indicates potential shifts in trade dynamics that could affect forex positions. Watch for key resistance levels in commodity prices and the yuan against the dollar, particularly if these trends continue into Q1 2026. The real story is whether this momentum can be sustained or if it’s a short-lived spike influenced by seasonal factors. Keep an eye on upcoming economic indicators from both China and the US to gauge the broader impact on global markets.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor China’s trade data closely; a sustained increase in imports could strengthen the yuan and impact commodity-linked currencies significantly.
