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China’s economy could maintain a 5% growth rate in 2026, driven largely by unexpectedly strong export performance, according to Macquarie economists. In a new note, they highlight that exports have been the biggest upside surprise this year, rising 5% year-to-date through October despite the drag from Trump-era tariffs. That pace is only slightly below the 6% increase recorded in 2024, underscoring China’s resilient manufacturing competitiveness.Macquarie expects exports to expand by 6% next year, far above the market consensus of around 1%. Strong external demand, they argue, is likely to persist and could reduce Beijing’s urgency to roll out aggressive domestic stimulus, even as China continues to face deflationary pressures. With global growth expected to accelerate, the economists say China may again outperform expectations on trade, supporting its broader growth trajectory into next year. —A stronger-than-expected export cycle would help stabilise China’s growth outlook, with implications for global supply chains, Asian FX, and commodity demand. Persistent deflation, however, highlights the uneven nature of the recovery and keeps Beijing’s policy stance in focus.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
China’s unexpected export growth could shift market dynamics significantly. With exports rising 5% year-to-date, traders should consider how this impacts commodities and currencies tied to China’s economy. A sustained growth rate of 5% into 2026 could bolster demand for raw materials, affecting prices in sectors like copper and oil. If this trend continues, we might see a stronger yuan, which could influence forex pairs like USD/CNY. However, keep an eye on geopolitical tensions and tariff policies, as they could quickly reverse these gains. The real story is whether this growth can withstand external pressures or if it’s a temporary spike. Watch for key economic indicators from China in the coming months, especially trade balance reports and manufacturing data, to gauge if this trend is sustainable or just a blip on the radar.
đź“® Takeaway
Monitor China’s trade balance and manufacturing data closely; sustained export growth could strengthen the yuan and impact commodity prices significantly.
