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China house prices continue their death spiral: January -3.1% y/y and -0.4% m/m

China’s housing slump deepens as January prices fall 3.1% y/y, extending multi-year downturn.Summary:Deflationary property trend deepensDeveloper balance sheets remain strainedDebt overhang continues to weigh on sectorPolicy support yet to generate sustained turnaround China’s property downturn showed little sign of stabilising in January, with new home prices falling 3.1% year-on-year, deepening from the prior 2.7% decline. On a monthly basis, prices slipped 0.4%, unchanged from December, underscoring the persistence of downward momentum in the sector.The data reinforces the view that China’s housing market remains entrenched in a multi-year correction. What began as a liquidity squeeze among heavily leveraged developers has evolved into a broader demand slump, with weak buyer confidence, falling sales volumes and declining prices feeding into each other.The sector’s debt burden remains a central pressure point. Years of aggressive expansion funded by high leverage left many developers exposed when authorities tightened financing conditions under the “three red lines” policy framework. High-profile defaults and restructuring efforts have continued to cloud the outlook, while pre-sale funding models have struggled amid slower buyer demand.Policy easing has been incremental rather than aggressive. Authorities have lowered mortgage rates, relaxed purchase restrictions in some cities and encouraged state-backed entities to support unfinished projects. However, these measures have yet to deliver a decisive inflection point. Household sentiment remains cautious, particularly as broader economic growth has moderated and youth unemployment concerns linger.The property sector carries outsized importance in China’s economy, directly and indirectly accounting for a substantial share of GDP, local government revenues and household wealth. Persistent price declines therefore have implications well beyond construction activity, affecting consumer spending, credit growth and financial stability.With monthly declines holding steady and annual falls deepening, January’s figures suggest the sector is still searching for a floor. Markets will continue to watch for stronger fiscal or monetary intervention should deflationary pressures in property intensify further.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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💡 DMK Insight

China’s housing market is in deeper trouble, and here’s why that matters for global traders: The 3.1% year-on-year drop in new home prices signals a continued deflationary trend that could ripple through related markets, particularly commodities and currencies. A struggling property sector often leads to reduced demand for materials like steel and copper, which could impact their prices. Additionally, the ongoing debt overhang and strained developer balance sheets suggest that any recovery will be slow, keeping investor sentiment cautious. This situation could lead to further easing measures from the Chinese government, but without immediate results, traders should be wary of volatility in the yuan and related assets. Look for key indicators like upcoming policy announcements or shifts in lending rates that could signal a change in the housing market’s trajectory. If prices continue to decline, it might trigger broader economic concerns, affecting global markets. Keep an eye on the 3.1% figure as a benchmark for future price movements and watch for any signs of stabilization in the coming months.

📮 Takeaway

Monitor China’s housing market closely; a sustained decline could impact global commodities and the yuan, especially if prices fall further.

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