Canada March employment report 14.1K versus 15K estimate

Prior -83.9KEmployment change 14.1K vs 150K Estimate unemployment rate 6.7% versus 6.8% expected. Prior 6.7%full-time employment change -1.1K vs -108.4K last month part-time employment change 15.2K vs +24.5 K last montparticipation rate 64.9% versus 64.9% last monthAverage hourly wages among employees were up 4.7% on a year-over-year basis in March, the highest growth rate since October 2024 (not seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year growth in average hourly wages had previously hovered between 3.2% and 3.9% from January 2025 to February 2026. Looking at the components, some of the details:Other services employment rose +15K (+1.9%) in March, reversing a similar-sized decline in February

Industry includes repair and maintenance servicesYear-over-year: little changed in this sector
Natural resources employment increased +10K (+3.0%)

Nearly half of gains came from Alberta (+4.5K, +3.2%)Year-over-year: little changed nationally and in Alberta
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing fell -11K (-0.8%)

First notable monthly decline since November 2023Health care & social assistance: little changed in March

But +94K (+3.3%) YoY, the largest annual job gain among industries
Manufacturing posted the largest annual decline
-44K (-2.4%) YoYMore Details from Canada Statistics:Across age groups:

Core-age (25–54): unemployment steady at 5.8%

Youth unemployment: 13.8%, still elevated

Age 55+: 4.9%, down YoY
Wage growth accelerated:

+4.7% YoY to $37.73 (strongest since Oct 2024)

Underlying wage growth closer to ~3.6% after adjusting for composition
Sector breakdown:
Gains:

Other services: +15K (+1.9%)

Natural resources: +10K (+3.0%)
Losses:

Finance/real estate: -11K (-0.8%)YoY trends:

Health care: +94K (+3.3%) (strongest growth)

Manufacturing: -44K (-2.4%) (largest decline)
Regional trends:
Weakness:

British Columbia: -19K (-0.7%), unemployment up to 6.7%
Strength:

Manitoba: +11K (+1.5%)

Saskatchewan: +5.8K (+0.9%), lowest unemployment at 5.0%

Nova Scotia: +3.9K (+0.7%)
Ontario: steady employment, but higher unemployment (7.6%) and regional weakness
Quebec: employment steady, unemployment fell to 5.4%Bottom line:
Labor market is stabilizing after early-year weakness

Unemployment elevated vs pre-COVID due to slower hiring, not layoffs

Wage growth firming, which could keep inflation pressures sticky

Overall tone: soft but not deteriorating—a market lacking momentum but holding together for nowThe USDCAD moved lower and broke below the 200 day MA and the 50% of the move up from the March 23 low. Both came in at 1.3816. However, the low from yesterday could not be broken and the price has rebounded back above the key technical levels.For background, the Labour Force Survey, published monthly by Statistics Canada, provides comprehensive data on employment, unemployment, and labour force participation across Canada. Released on the first or second Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. ET, the report surveys approximately 56,000 households and tracks employment changes by industry, province, full-time versus part-time status, and demographic characteristics. The survey measures not only net job creation but also unemployment rates, wage growth, and labour force participation, offering insights into the health of Canada’s economy. The data is closely monitored by the Bank of Canada when setting monetary policy and by economists assessing economic conditions. At the moment, there are no further cuts priced in for the Bank of Canada.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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