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The Asia-Pacific economic calendar has only one highlight today and that’s the Australian January trade balance in goods report. The consensus is a surplus of A$3.9 billion, in a solid improvement from +$3.337 billion in December.Yesterday’s price action in AUD was strange as it was a laggard despite the stronger GDP number. I tend to think the drop in gold prices and rout in mining stocks might have discouraged some of the thinking around an investment boom. Naturally, all eyes remain on the Middle East but the market is clearly getting more comfortable with the risks around the war. Today, the US and Israel claimed “local air superiority” and said they’ve struck 1000 targets since Feb 28. I wrote yesterday about the good news in the Iran war and that was a declining number of offensive ballistic missile launches from Iran. The latest day saw just 10-15 launches across all fronts in what’s been a sharp and continued decline that looks like it’s headed to near zero. That doesn’t exclude the tens of thousands of drones in the arsenal but it limits the damage Iran can do to regional oil infrastructure. As for the drones, it looks like the launches are less coordinated and that also lowers the risks. Launching 100 at once can saturate the target’s air defenses but 10 at a time are more likely to be shot down.As for the rest of what we’re watching, it’s all about Korea. The rout in the Kospi yesterday has the market on the highest alert and anything can happen.I lean towards a bounce given the big pickups in risk assets in the past 12 hours but it will be volatile once again. Along the same lines, Japanese stocks will need to stabilize.I will be watching bitcoin, gold and bonds as well.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The Australian trade balance is set to improve, but the AUD’s recent weakness raises questions. With a forecasted surplus of A$3.9 billion, traders might expect a bullish reaction in the AUD. However, yesterday’s performance showed the currency lagging despite positive economic signals. This disconnect could indicate underlying market skepticism or profit-taking ahead of the report. If the actual surplus exceeds expectations, we could see a sharp rally in the AUD, especially against the USD. Watch for key resistance levels around AUD/USD 0.70, which could trigger further buying. On the flip side, if the trade balance disappoints, the AUD could face significant selling pressure, potentially dragging down correlated assets like commodities. Keep an eye on the broader market sentiment and any shifts in risk appetite, as these factors could amplify volatility in the forex space. The immediate focus should be on the trade balance release, but also consider the longer-term implications for the AUD as we head into the next quarter.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the Australian trade balance report closely; a surplus above A$3.9 billion could push AUD/USD towards 0.70 resistance.
