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The AUDUSD moved higher early in the week, but the Fed’s less-dovish tone turned the tide — sending the AUD lower and the USD broadly higher. Stocks slipped and yields rose in response to the more hawkish message from Chair Powell. That helped the push lower as well. Still, the downside move has found support near the 200-hour and 100-day moving averages, both converging around 0.65366. That confluence gives traders a clear risk-defining level, and buyers have stepped in to defend it. With risk contained below, “buyers are in play.”The next upside targets sit first at the day’s high, and more importantly, the 100-hour MA at 0.65684 — a level broken to the downside yesterday and now acting as a key barrier. A move above it would shift momentum back in favor of the bulls.If buyers can’t hold the line and price slips below the converged MAs, however, the bullish case fades and downside pressure returns.Bottom line: The AUDUSD sits at a key crossroads — buyers have a defined shot from support, but they have work to do to wrestle full control. If they cannot do it, and the price falls below the dual MAs below, that bias will shift fully in favor of the sellers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The Fed’s shift to a less-dovish stance is shaking up the AUDUSD and broader markets. As Chair Powell’s comments resonate, the AUD is feeling the pressure while the USD gains strength. This dynamic is crucial for traders, especially those in forex, as it signals a potential trend reversal. If the AUDUSD breaks below recent support levels, it could trigger further selling, impacting not just the AUD but also commodities linked to it, like gold and oil. Keep an eye on the 0.6400 level for a potential breakdown, which could lead to a cascade effect across related markets. On the flip side, if the AUD manages to hold above this level, it could present a buying opportunity for contrarian traders looking for a bounce back. Watch for upcoming economic data releases that could further influence the Fed’s stance and market sentiment. The next few days are critical for positioning, as volatility is likely to increase with these developments.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the AUDUSD closely; a break below 0.6400 could signal further downside, while holding above may offer a buying opportunity.
