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The latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow model for Q4 is at 3.9%, up from 3.8%. The problem with the model is that it depends on economic data and we’re not getting much of it now, so everyone is pretty much flying blind. They did pick up some dribs and drabs.”After yesterday’s monthly treasury statement report from the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and 4.4 percent, while the nowcast of third-quarter real government expenditures growth decreased from 1.8 percent to 1.5 percent.”The next update isn’t scheduled until Oct 27 and hopefully we have some real data by then.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model nudging up to 3.9% is like a weather forecast predicting sunshine while the skies are still cloudy—promising, but not exactly reliable. With economic data trickling in like molasses, traders are left squinting into the fog, trying to make sense of a landscape that feels more like guesswork than guidance. It’s a reminder that in the world of finance, optimism can sometimes be a double-edged sword; we might be on the brink of a sunny quarter, or we could just be setting ourselves up for a rainy surprise.
đź“® Takeaway
In uncertain times, a glimmer of growth can be both a beacon of hope and a potential mirage—stay cautious.
