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I posted the news from the FT here:Trump says US could take the oil in Iran (via Financial Times)In summary:U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a mix of escalation risk and cautious optimism on diplomacy in comments reported by the Financial Times. He suggested the United States could seize Iranian oil assets, including the key export hub at Kharg Island, describing it as an operation that could be carried out “very easily” and claiming Iran has limited defences there. Trump framed control of Iran’s oil as a preferred strategic outcome, though acknowledged domestic pushback against such a move.At the same time, he indicated that indirect negotiations with Iran—conducted via intermediaries—are progressing, adding that a deal could be reached relatively quickly. This highlights the ongoing dual-track approach of military pressure alongside diplomacy.Trump also noted that Iran has allowed a greater number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with the figure doubling to 20. This suggests some limited easing in maritime flows, even as broader tensions persist.Overall, the comments underscore a highly fluid situation, where aggressive military options remain on the table, but are being weighed alongside diplomatic efforts that could potentially deliver a faster resolution.-At the same time the Wall Street Journal reported on Trump weighing a direct military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, according to U.S. officials.Trump is considering a high-risk military operation to seize Iran’s enriched uranium, a move that could significantly escalate the conflict. The mission would target key nuclear sites such as Isfahan and Natanz and could require U.S. forces on the ground for several days, exposing them to retaliation and extending the war timeline.While no decision has been made, the uranium remains central to Washington’s objective of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The U.S. is simultaneously pursuing a diplomatic route, urging Iran to hand over the material via intermediaries, though Tehran has resisted.The situation presents a clear trade-off: a forced seizure could decisively neutralise nuclear risks but at high operational and escalation cost, while a negotiated solution would avoid conflict expansion but remains uncertain. -This all comes after another tense weekend, Via Reuters: Electricity has been cut in parts of the Iranian capital Tehran and in Alborz province after attacks on the area’s infrastructure, Iran’s state media cites the country’s ministry of energy as saying.
Shrapnel hit a part of the electricity grid in Alborz province, causing power to be cut in several areas of Tehran and the city of Karaj. Authorities are working on reinstating it, state media adds.-I am thinking that talk on Kharg Island is a distraction from the real goal, controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island is basically storage and shipping. By taking it Trump would get the oil currently there, but thats about it. And of course make it much difficult for Iran to export oil (which may be a goal, sure).
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Trump’s comments on potentially seizing Iranian oil could shake up energy markets significantly. Escalation risks in the Middle East often lead to volatility in oil prices, and traders should be on high alert. If the U.S. moves forward with such actions, we could see a spike in crude oil prices, impacting not just oil futures but also related assets like energy stocks and ETFs. Keep an eye on the $80 per barrel level for Brent crude; a break above could trigger a wave of buying. On the flip side, if diplomatic efforts succeed, we might see a pullback in oil prices, which could create a buying opportunity for those looking to enter long positions. Watch for any official announcements or developments in the coming days, as these could provide clearer signals on market direction. Also, monitor the geopolitical sentiment as it can shift rapidly, affecting not just oil but broader market indices as well.
📮 Takeaway
Keep an eye on Brent crude around $80; any escalation could push prices higher, while successful diplomacy might create buying opportunities.
