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This is a great report.Prior was +115K (revised to +179K)Two-month net revision +93KMarch was +185K (revised to +214K) Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.3%Unrounded unemployment 4.296% vs 4.337% priorParticipation rate 61.8% vs 61.8% priorU6 underemployment rate 8.1% vs 8.2% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.4% y/y vs +3.4% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.3vs 34.3 expectedChange in private payrolls +120K vs +85K expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls +7K vs +2K expectedGovernment payrolls +52K vs -8K in AprilThe May jobs report blew past a low bar. Nonfarm payrolls rose 172K, topping every forecast in a consensus range that maxed out near 125K, and the back months were marked up hard — March to +214K and April to +179K, a net +93K revision that flips the recent run of downward revisions on its head.The details back the headline. The unemployment rate held at 4.3% but eased on an unrounded basis to 4.296% from 4.337%. Wages firmed, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% on the month and the workweek steady at 34.3 hours. Leisure and hospitality led with +70K, local government added 55K and health care 35K. The soft spots were narrow: financial activities shed 22K and manufacturing barely budged at +7K.This is not a labor market crying out for help, and the rates market noticed. Odds of a December hike have jumped to 61% from 45% — a continuation of the repricing for a Fed that markets were flirting with cutting in July before the Iran war. With inflation stuck at 3.8% and hiring re-accelerating, the “low-hire, low-fire” standoff suddenly looks like it’s tilting toward hire, and that’s the version of the economy that suggests the Fed could be falling behind the curve.In response, USD/JPY is but about a dozen pips and back through 160.00. EUR/USD has quickly fallen to 1.1605 from 1.1640. S&P 500 futures have turned more deeply negative and are down 0.6%. In the rates market, it’s a stronger move with yields up 7-4 bps and led by the front end.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The recent labor market data shows a stronger than expected revision in job growth, and here’s why that matters: With the two-month net revision adding 93K jobs, traders should be paying close attention to how this impacts Fed policy. A robust job market could lead to tighter monetary policy, which often puts downward pressure on risk assets like crypto and equities. The steady unemployment rate at 4.3% and consistent participation rate suggest stability, but the U6 underemployment rate at 8.1% indicates there’s still slack in the labor market. This could affect consumer spending and, by extension, economic growth. Look for potential volatility in the markets as traders digest these figures. If the Fed perceives this data as a signal to maintain or accelerate rate hikes, we could see a stronger dollar, which typically inversely affects crypto prices. Key levels to watch include the average hourly earnings growth, which at +0.3% m/m aligns with expectations but could shift sentiment if future reports deviate. Keep an eye on the upcoming FOMC meeting for any hints on policy direction, as that could dictate market movements in the near term.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for Fed reactions to this labor data; a tighter policy could pressure risk assets, particularly if average hourly earnings rise unexpectedly.
