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Swiss manufacturing sentiment surprisingly picks up in May but with a caveat

Manufacturing PMI 57.3 vs 53.5 expectedPrior 54.5The overall index jumps to a near three-year high but it comes amid a fresh decline in output and new orders on the month. Instead, the rise is largely in part driven by higher suppliers’ delivery times – which increased by another 1.6 points to 65.7 in May. Just be wary that this sub-index tends to have a positive contribution to the overall headline estimate.For some context, intensification of supply chain delays are normally viewed as a sign of busier vendors due to higher demand and positive in terms of economic growth. However, the Middle East conflict is not a telling sign of that as the deterioration in vendor times is largely tied to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The supply chain disruption also sees a further increase in order backlogs – up 3.3 points to 59.4, the highest since April 2022. Meanwhile, purchase prices continue to stay elevated on the month as well (down 0.1 points to 82.7). Firms reported notably higher prices for petroleum-based products
such as plastics, driven by the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East.So yes, the headline estimate might seem positive and reflect an uptick in sentiment. But again, the devil is in the details.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

The Manufacturing PMI hitting 57.3 is a headline grabber, but here’s the catch: it’s not all roses. While the index is at a near three-year high, the underlying details tell a different story. The increase is primarily due to longer delivery times from suppliers, which can signal supply chain issues rather than robust demand. This divergence could lead traders to rethink their positions, especially those betting on a manufacturing rebound. If output and new orders are declining, it raises questions about sustainability. Traders should keep an eye on related sectors, particularly commodities and stocks tied to manufacturing, as they might react negatively if this trend continues. Watch for the PMI to hold above 55 in the coming months; a drop below that could trigger a reassessment of growth expectations and impact broader market sentiment.

📮 Takeaway

Monitor the Manufacturing PMI closely; a sustained drop below 55 could signal deeper economic issues and impact related sectors significantly.

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