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Caution still up in the air as the US-Iran conflict drags on

It looked like risk sentiment was bound to take a big knock yesterday but not for some mix of headlines to start the week. First, we had Iranian media saying that the US is to propose a temporary waiver to sanctions. That helped to bring risk trades off their lows before the news was denied by US officials later on. That led to the market mood being not as bad as it was from the start of European trading.After which, US president Trump helped to lift the mood further in calling off a large-scale military strike against Iran that had been scheduled for Tuesday. He said that the suspension was at the request of Gulf leaders, to allow for peace talks to continue. He then went on to say that there is a “good chance” of a deal now that the strike has been called off.That at least helped to see Wall Street salvage something towards the end of yesterday.But as we get into the new day, we’re starting to see caution get thrown back up in the air. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% while bond yields continue to stick at the highs. 10-year yields in the US are at 4.60% with 30-year yields at 5.14% on the day.In other markets, the dollar is also gaining slight ground with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1635 and USD/JPY starting to border near the 159.00 level. On the latter, intervention risks remain high after Japan finance minister delivered another warning shot here. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is also down 0.5% to 0.7130 on the day.In the commodities space, oil prices are off highs from yesterday but are still keeping elevated. Brent crude is holding near $110 while WTI crude (July contract) is sticking at around $102.70, with the latter well off the overnight lows of $98.60.And looking to precious metals, gold is back down by 0.5% to $4,541 with silver down 1.9% to $76.17 currently.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

🔗 Source

💡 DMK Insight

Risk sentiment took a hit, but headlines about potential US sanctions waivers are shifting the mood. Traders should pay attention to how these developments impact broader market dynamics, especially in commodities and currencies sensitive to geopolitical tensions. If the US does propose a waiver, we could see a rebound in risk assets, particularly in oil and emerging market currencies. Watch for key levels in oil prices and the USD/IRR exchange rate, as these could signal shifts in sentiment. However, it’s worth noting that optimism can be fleeting. If the waiver doesn’t materialize or if tensions escalate again, we might see a quick reversal. Keep an eye on the daily charts for volatility spikes and adjust your positions accordingly.

📮 Takeaway

Monitor oil prices and USD/IRR levels closely; a US sanctions waiver could shift risk sentiment significantly.

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