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AUD/USD remains stuck in a range as RBA signals a pause and US-Iran stalemate extendsUS futures keep steadier after the drop yesterdayIndian Rupee flirts with new record lows as US-Iran stalemate extends, tensions riseUSD/JPY treads with caution amid fear of incurring another intervention hitOil prices stay elevated amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran stalemateGold’s outlook remains neutral-to-bearish amid prolonged US-Iran stalemate and neutral FedSwitzerland April CPI +0.6% vs +0.6% y/y expectedWhat are the main events for today?Iran parliament speaker says US has jeopardised shipping security through Strait of HormuzFX option expiries for 5 May 10am New York cutRBA governor Bullock: We must get on top of inflation now before it gets away from usRBA raises cash rate to 4.35% in May monetary policy meeting, as expectedIt’s been a rather uneventful session with mostly rangebound price action. The main highlight was the RBA policy decision where the central bank hiked the Cash Rate to 4.35% as widely expected but adopted a more neutral guidance. In fact, the central bank added in the statement the key passage “having raised the cash rate three times, monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments, and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment”.The RBA has also revised its forecasts for the Cash Rate by matching the market expectations of two more rate hikes by year-end. Governor Bullock doubled down on the neutral tone as she stated that “the cash rate level is now a bit restrictive” and “that gives us space to see how the conflict plays out”. Finally, she added that “with this rate hike, we have space to sit and see what happens”. The market pared back some of the hawkish bets and it now sees the next rate hike coming in September at the earliest.In terms of economic data, we had the Swiss CPI report. Headline CPI Y/Y came out as expected at 0.6% but the core annual metric eased further to 0.3% vs 0.4% in the prior month. The data didn’t change anything for the SNB as the central bank has all the reasons to look through this energy supply shock.The most notable mover in the market was the Japanese yen as it slipped further against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair breaking out of the recent range that was capped by Japan’s interventions.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
AUD/USD is caught in a range, and here’s why that matters for traders: With the RBA signaling a pause, traders are left in limbo, waiting for clearer direction. The US-Iran stalemate is adding to market uncertainty, which could lead to volatility in currency pairs. The Indian Rupee is flirting with record lows, indicating that emerging market currencies are under pressure, which could spill over into AUD/USD trading. If the USD strengthens due to geopolitical tensions, we might see AUD/USD break below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on the 0.6400 level as a potential breakdown point. On the flip side, if oil prices remain elevated, it could support the Australian dollar, given the country’s export profile. Watch for any shifts in US economic data or further developments in the US-Iran situation, as these could trigger significant moves in the forex market. The next few days could be crucial for establishing a clearer trend, so stay alert for any breakout or breakdown signals.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the 0.6400 support level in AUD/USD; geopolitical tensions and US economic data could trigger significant moves.
