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Every Trader is a Forex TraderChina PMI data points to export resilience but soft domestic demand remains the weak spotUSD/JPY ticking higher above 160, no verbal intervention efforts so far todayUS military to present Trump with fresh options for military actionICYMI: Central banks buy 244 tons of gold in Q1 at fastest pace in over a yearChina private PMI surges to 52.2 in April, strongest factory reading since late 2020China private survey April manufacturing PMI 52.2 (expected 51.0, prior 50.8)China official April PMI Manufacturing 50.3 (expected 50.1) Non-manuf. 49.4 (exp 49.9)NZ business confidence crashes to -10.6 in April as cost shock rattles outlook – morePBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8628 (vs. estimate at 6.8414)New Zealand April business confidence in the hole at minus 10.6% vs. +32.5% in MarchJapan March industrial output falls 0.5% as Hormuz closure hits chemicals and fuelsA desperate Trump pitches Maritime Freedom Construct coalition to reopen Strait of HormuzJapan March Industrial production misses expectations while Retail Sales beatBank of England set to hold at 3.75% as Iran war forces stagflation reckoningNZ makes RBNZ votes public as fin min Willis overhauls MPC transparency charterPreview: ECB expected to keep rates at 2% today. Lagarde tone on June takes centre stageBrazil’s cuts rate by 25bp to 14.50% but flags deanchored inflation and Middle East risksGoldman: UAE exit from OPEC introduces oil supply upside risk once Strait of Hormuz reopenAt a glance:US CENTCOM to brief Trump Thursday on Iran military options including infrastructure strike, Hormuz seizure and special forces uranium mission; Brent crude hits new war highChina official manufacturing PMI 50.3 in April, above the 50.1 forecast; non-manufacturing slips to 49.4, a 40-month low, back into contractionChina RatingDog private manufacturing PMI surges to 52.2, strongest since late 2020, reflecting outperformance of export-oriented private firms versus state-linked enterprisesUSD/JPY pushing toward 160.40 as yen weakens; no Japanese official intervention comments yetBank of Japan Governor Ueda scheduled to speak June 3, ahead of the June 15-16 policy meeting, potentially flagging a rate hikeBank of England rate decision 1100 GMT, Bailey press conference 1130 GMT; hold expectedECB rate decision 1215 GMT, Lagarde press conference 1245 GMT; hold expectedIt has been a busy session. The dominant headline is the Axios report that US CENTCOM will brief President Trump on Thursday on fresh military options against Iran, including a concentrated infrastructure strike, a potential ground operation to seize part of the Strait of Hormuz and a special forces mission to secure Iran’s uranium stockpile. Brent crude has risen to a new war high on the news.From Asia, China’s PMI data delivered a split verdict: the official manufacturing PMI held narrowly above 50 at 50.3 while the non-manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction at 49.4, exposing the gap between a resilient export-oriented factory sector and a struggling domestic economy. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI told a more upbeat story, surging to 52.2, its strongest reading since late 2020, reflecting the better fortunes of China’s private and export-focused firms relative to their state-linked counterparts.In currency markets, the yen continued to weaken with USD/JPY pushing toward 160.40 and no verbal intervention from Japanese officials as yet. Notably, the Bank of Japan has announced that Governor Ueda will speak on June 3, ahead of the June 15-16 policy meeting, a scheduling choice that markets may read as preparation for a rate hike signal.Still to come today are rate decisions from the Bank of England at 1100 GMT and the European Central Bank at 1215 GMT. Both are expected to hold. Governor Bailey speaks at 1130 GMT and President Lagarde at 1245 GMT. See the previews above for the detail on what to watch.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
China’s PMI data shows export strength, but domestic demand is lagging, impacting USD/JPY dynamics. With USD/JPY pushing above 160, traders should be cautious as this level could trigger intervention from Japanese authorities if it continues to rise. The lack of verbal intervention so far suggests a wait-and-see approach, but any sudden moves could lead to volatility. Additionally, central banks’ gold purchases signal a shift towards safe-haven assets, which might affect currency flows. Keep an eye on the upcoming economic indicators from China and the U.S. that could sway market sentiment. Traders should monitor the 160 level closely; a sustained break could lead to further upward momentum, but any signs of intervention could reverse that trend quickly. Also, watch for any shifts in U.S. economic data that might influence the dollar’s strength against the yen.
📮 Takeaway
Watch the 160 level in USD/JPY closely; sustained trading above could invite intervention, while economic data from China and the U.S. will be key drivers.
