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The USD is softer heading into Friday trade, with the greenback slipping to fresh session lows as North American desks come in. Risk sentiment is getting a modest boost from headlines that Iran will send a delegation to Pakistan this weekend, helping lift equities after yesterday’s dip.On the corporate side, Intel is the standout. Shares are sharply higher after a blowout earnings report, continuing a remarkable turnaround for what was not long ago viewed as a laggard in the chip space. Revenue came in at $13.6B (well above expectations), while EPS printed at $0.29 vs $0.01 expected, sending the stock up roughly 20% to $82.That move also shines a spotlight on last August’s policy decision, when the U.S. government converted $8.9B in unspent CHIPS Act funding into a ~9.9% equity stake, acquiring 433.3 million shares at $20.47. At today’s price, that position is now worth approximately $35.5B, translating to a ~$26.6B gain (+299%) in under a year. Even when factoring in total exposure of about $11.1B, the return is still roughly +220%. The stake remains unrealized, with no indication yet on timing for any potential exit.The estimated current total direct cost estimates stands at approximately $35 billion, or roughly $236 per U.S. taxpayer and equal to the value of the Intel stock (assuming they continue to hold the full position). In broader markets, stocks are rebounding:Dow: -25 points
S&P 500: +31 points (after -29 yesterday)
Nasdaq: +361 points (after -219 yesterday)
In FX, the dollar is correcting lower after a stronger week:EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD: All seeing USD weakness after prior gains
Rates are slightly lower but still elevated:2-year yield: -0.5 bps
10-year yield: -1.0 bps (holding above 4.30%)
Meanwhile, crude oil is down about 1%, easing slightly after recent volatility.In the video above, I break down the technicals for EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, focusing on the key levels that are defining bias, risk, and targets as the dollar pulls back.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
The USD’s recent weakness signals shifting risk sentiment, and here’s why that matters: As the greenback slips to fresh session lows, traders should keep an eye on how this impacts correlated assets like equities and commodities. The news of Iran sending a delegation to Pakistan is contributing to a more optimistic outlook, which could further weaken the dollar if risk appetite continues to grow. This environment may favor long positions in equities, especially if indices show strength in the coming sessions. However, be cautious; a sudden shift in geopolitical tensions could reverse these gains quickly. Traders should monitor key levels on the USD index, particularly if it approaches recent support zones. A break below these levels could trigger further selling pressure. Additionally, keep an eye on the S&P 500 and other major indices for confirmation of this risk-on sentiment. If they rally, it could indicate a broader market shift, but if they falter, it might signal a return to safe-haven assets like the dollar.
đź“® Takeaway
Watch for the USD index approaching key support levels; a break could signal further weakness, benefiting equities and commodities.