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Prior 52.2Services PMI 46.9 vs 50.4 expectedPrior 50.9Composite PMI 48.3 vs 51.2 expectedPrior 51.9The US-Iran war is clearly weighing on economic activity as growth slows down further while inflation rises. The composite PMI fell into contraction for the first time since May 2025.The agency notes: “The recovery in the German economy has been stopped in its tracks by the war in the Middle East. The manufacturing sector saw output and new orders edge higher, although there are warning signs that it could slip back into contraction. There’s seemingly been little spillover to the labour market as yet, with jobs being cut at only a slightly faster rate than the trend in the months before the war started. That could change if activity remains supressed and energy prices remain elevated”.This is not going to change anything for the ECB as the central bank has already signalled it’s going to keep interest rates steady in April as it gathers more information. It’s going to be hard though to hike rates into an economic slowdown as it could exacerbate the negative effects.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The drop in the Composite PMI to 48.3 signals a contraction, and here’s why that matters: With the PMI falling below the 50 mark, traders should brace for potential volatility in both forex and equities. This contraction reflects broader economic concerns, particularly the impact of geopolitical tensions like the US-Iran conflict, which could further dampen consumer and business sentiment. Traders should keep an eye on related assets, especially the Euro and commodities, as they may react to shifts in economic forecasts. If inflation continues to rise alongside these contraction signals, central banks might be forced to adjust their monetary policies, which could lead to significant market shifts. Look for key levels in the S&P 500 and EUR/USD; if the S&P breaks below recent support levels, it could trigger further selling pressure. Conversely, if the Euro shows resilience, it might indicate a flight to safety. Monitoring these dynamics over the coming weeks will be crucial as traders position themselves for potential market corrections.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for the S&P 500’s support levels; a break could signal deeper market corrections amid rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.
