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Trump posts on Truth Social:IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!Oil has cratered on the announcement from Iran’s foreign minister:That’s a big head and shoulders pattern.The market has been sniffing out a TACO since the start of the month and it’s going much more smoothly than almost anyone hoped. There have really been no hiccups other than JD Vance leaving Pakistan but even that stunt was quickly downplayed. Axios reports that a three-page MOU is under consideration that will deliver $20 billion to Iran in exchange for nuclear material likely being shipped to a third country. The caveat here is that the Strait is open “for the remaining period of the ceasefire” but I take that as more of a formality. If they didn’t think a deal was very close, they wouldn’t be opening up anything.There are some big market moves across the board on the peace trade with the euro up 61 pips to 1.1872 and USD/JPY down 87 pips to 158.32.US 10-year yields are down 7.3 bps to 4.23% as the inflationary shock from the war is going to dissipate. The question now is how many ships will take Iran up on the offer and how quickly production can be restarted in the Middle East. It’s going to take a real effort to restock energy storage but from the sounds of things, we’re headed very quickly towards a comprehensive deal. The latest reports suggest in person meetings on Sunday in Pakistan and that’s looking more like it will be the finalization of a deal rather than negotiations.Of course, these things are always toughest at the end so don’t rule out a hiccup or some profit taking ahead of the weekend. S&P 500 futures are up 0.9% and the Nasdaq is set for a 13th straight gain.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
đź’ˇ DMK Insight
Iran’s announcement about the Strait of Hormuz being fully open is a game changer for oil traders. This news comes at a time when oil prices are already under pressure, and the formation of a head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential bearish reversal. Traders should be on high alert for shorting opportunities, especially if prices break below key support levels. The market’s reaction could also impact related assets like energy stocks and ETFs, which often move in tandem with crude oil prices. Keep an eye on the $70 mark for WTI crude; a sustained drop below this level could trigger further selling. On the flip side, if there’s any geopolitical escalation or supply disruption, we might see a quick rebound. So, while the current sentiment leans bearish, the situation remains fluid. Watch for volatility spikes and adjust your positions accordingly.
đź“® Takeaway
Monitor WTI crude around the $70 level; a break below could signal further declines, while geopolitical tensions may reverse the trend.
