Iran clears missile base tunnels during ceasefire, signalling rearmament risk

Iran is rebuilding access to underground missile bases during the ceasefire, highlighting the temporary nature of the pause and the risk of renewed conflict.Summary:Iran clearing debris from underground missile bases during ceasefire

US–Israel strikes targeted tunnel entrances to disable launchers

Around half of Iran’s missile launchers assessed still intact

“Missile cities” designed to absorb strikes and rapidly reconstitute

Highlights fragile ceasefire and persistent re-escalation risk
Iran is moving to restore access to its underground missile infrastructure during the ceasefire, according to satellite imagery reviewed by CNN, underscoring the temporary nature of the current lull in hostilities.The images show heavy machinery clearing debris from tunnel entrances linked to so-called “missile cities,” with rubble being removed to reopen access routes. These facilities had been targeted extensively by US and Israeli strikes, which focused on sealing tunnel entrances to prevent missile launchers from deploying or returning to reload.Despite the sustained campaign, US intelligence assessments indicate that roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact after a month of fighting. However, many of these assets are believed to have been rendered temporarily unusable, buried behind blocked tunnel systems rather than destroyed outright.The current activity suggests Iran is attempting to reconstitute its operational capability, taking advantage of the ceasefire window to restore mobility and readiness. Analysts note that this aligns with the intended design of the underground network, which is built to withstand initial strikes and enable a rapid recovery phase.The concept behind these hardened facilities is inherently cyclical: absorb an attack, clear access, and resume operations. As such, the reopening of tunnel entrances may not represent escalation in itself, but rather a predictable phase in Iran’s military doctrine.For markets and policymakers, the development reinforces the fragility of the ceasefire. While near-term tensions may have eased, the underlying military balance remains largely intact, raising the risk that hostilities could resume once capabilities are restored. —For markets, the development tempers optimism around de-escalation, highlighting that the ceasefire may be providing space for military rebuilding rather than a durable resolution. This keeps geopolitical risk premia elevated, particularly in energy markets, where renewed conflict could quickly disrupt supply. Any signs of restored missile capability are likely to reinforce volatility in oil prices and sustain demand for safe-haven assets.—The mood today in Asia has been of continued optimism, with Vance and Trump both goosing markets:Vance signals US–Iran progress, pushes ‘grand bargain’ as ceasefire holdsHeads up for Trump interview. “He said, its over.”Trump says Iran war: “I view it as very close to over.”
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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