Oil prices jump back above $100 after US-Iran negotiations breakdown, Trump's blockade

FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEWOil prices opened higher
today following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. This shouldn’t be
a surprise though given the strong divergence in stances ahead of the talks.There have been reports of
US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels,
but for now we don’t have any official date for another round of negotiations. The
good news is that the ceasefire seems to be holding, but Trump decided to put pressure
on Iran by blockading
their ports. This has raised the risk premium
for oil prices as a potential breach of the ceasefire is going to keep traders
on edge. For now, the downside remains limited until we get an official
resolution and the end of the war. CRUDE OIL
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil opened higher today after the failed US-Iran negotiations. The
price will likely continue to trade in this wide range unless the war escalates
again or we finally get a peace deal. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can
see the price fell into the lower bound of the channel again on Friday which is
where the buyers have been stepping in since last week. Right now, we don’t
have clear levels where to lean on, so if we get another pullback into the bottom
trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in again. The sellers, on the other
hand, will have a much better risk to reward setup around the upper bound of
the channel if the price gets there. For now, it remains a buyers’ market.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor counter-trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers might
lean on it with a defined risk above it to extend the pullback into the lower
bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to
increase the bullish bets into the upper bound of the channel. The red lines
define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless
Claims figures. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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