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Figure Heloc It’s been the case for a few weeks now. We start the week with some sense of renewed optimism only for it to be dashed through the coming days and then markets choosing to de-risk into the weekend. Will this week be the same? There’s certainly an air of familiarity to it.US president Trump gave Iran a deadline to later today before all hell breaks loose. However, is this all just another empty threat though? We shall see. From overnight and earlier:Trump: Tuesday Iran deadline is ‘final deadline’Trump press conference: The entire country can be taken out in one nightIran rejects ceasefire in reply to US via Pakistan, wants permanent end to warIsrael prepares Iran energy strike plans as Trump decision looms on next stepsAs the deadline draws closer to an end, markets are getting anxious and angsty again now. That especially as Iran remains defiant, at least on official channels, that they won’t be conceding to Trump’s ceasefire proposal.Heading into European trading, oil prices are pushing fresh one-month highs while risk trades are slipping on the day. WTI crude is up over 3% to above $116 now, its highest since the spike on 9 March. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% as the bounce in the past week might start to come undone.As we look to the day ahead, nothing matters more than what will come next on the US-Iran conflict.But the way I see things going, it will be tough for markets to really feel optimistic in the big picture. If Trump really escalates the geopolitical conflict, it will increase the uncertainty and timeline on the war coming to an end. That is unless somehow he incapacitates Iran to the point where the war is over, by some way or miracle.So unless that happens, it’s a negative for risk and it doesn’t do anything to alleviate the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.And even if whatever military intervention he is planning mainly reaffirms the current status quo, kicking the can down the road is not a solution either.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Traders are feeling déjà vu as optimism fades into the weekend—here’s what to watch. The pattern of starting the week with hope only to see it evaporate is becoming a trend. This week, keep an eye on key economic indicators and sentiment shifts that could either reinforce or challenge this cycle. If the market continues to de-risk, it could signal a broader bearish trend, especially if we see significant sell-offs in major assets. Watch for any changes in trading volume or volatility, as these could hint at whether this week will break the cycle or follow suit. On the flip side, if there’s a surprise positive catalyst—like unexpected economic data or a shift in central bank policy—it could provide a jolt to the market. Traders should monitor the upcoming economic releases closely, particularly those related to inflation or employment, as they could sway sentiment dramatically. The real story is whether this week will finally break the cycle of disappointment or simply reinforce it.
📮 Takeaway
Watch for economic indicators this week; a shift in sentiment could either break the cycle of de-risking or reinforce it, impacting major asset prices.
