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The NZDUSD has erased the gains from Tuesday and Wednesday, after stalling just ahead of a key resistance zone yesterday. That earlier move higher on Wednesday pushed toward the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 20 high to this week’s low, which comes in at 0.57714. The high price reached 0.5776, but buyers could not sustain momentum, with the rally falling short of the falling 200-hour moving average—a key technical ceiling (Green line on the chart below).Into the close yesterday, the pair move lower, but found support at the rising 100-hour moving average (blue line), prompting a modest bounce. However, that support gave way as oil prices surged and broader USD demand picked up following headlines tied to President Trump’s speech. The break below the 100-hour moving average shifted the short-term bias back to the downside, accelerating the move toward the lows from Monday and Tuesday near 0.56979.Once again, buyers leaned against that floor on two separate tests today, with the low for the day coming in at 0.56985—just above the earlier weekly lows. That level is now acting as a clear risk-defining support. The pair has since rebounded modestly and is currently trading near 0.5717. Moving below the 4 would open the door for further selling today and going forward. Until then there is hope for the dip buyers against the support level.Bottom line:
Buyers have defended the 0.5698 area, but control remains limited. To regain more upside traction, the price needs to move back above—and stay above—the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.57324. If that happens, the focus shifts back to the 200-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement near 0.57714. Until then, the sellers retain the edge on rallies with a focus on the floor as the next target to get to and through to explore more downside potential..
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
The NZDUSD’s recent pullback from a critical resistance level signals potential volatility ahead. After stalling near the 38.2% retracement level at 0.57714, traders should be cautious. This retracement is often a pivotal point, and failing to break above it could lead to further declines. If the pair continues to struggle here, we might see a test of lower support levels, potentially around the recent lows. The broader market context, including the performance of the USD and any shifts in risk sentiment, will also play a crucial role in determining the next move. Keep an eye on economic indicators from New Zealand and the U.S., as they could influence the NZDUSD’s trajectory. On the flip side, if the pair manages to reclaim that resistance, it could signal a bullish reversal, attracting momentum traders. Watch for volume spikes around this level, as they could indicate a stronger move in either direction.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor the 0.57714 resistance level closely; a failure to break above could lead to further declines in the NZDUSD.
