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Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0%Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expectedPrior +4.5%; revised to +4.8%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expectedPrior +2.0%; revised to +2.2%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.4% vs +2.9% y/y expectedPrior +5.5%; revised to +5.9%The drop here isn’t as bad as estimated, and that comes despite a positive revision to the January figures. Despite the monthly drop, UK retail sales remain decent in the past few months, with the less volatile three-month reading showing retail sales up 0.7% in the three months to February.But when compared to the pre-pandemic level in February 2020, retail sales volumes are down 0.3% as of last month.Looking at the details, the drop in February largely stems from a marked decline in sales in household goods stores (-2.6%). ONS attributes that to poorer weather conditions though, with retailers suggesting wet weather reduced demand.Besides that, there were also declines in food store sales (-0.7%) and also textile, clothing, and footwear store sales (-1.0%). Non-store retailing also showed a decline of 0.5% on the month to add to that.In any case, the landscape here will change significantly once we get to see more of the impact of higher energy prices come into play in the months ahead. So, just keep that in mind.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Retail sales data just came in better than expected, and here’s why that matters: The latest figures show a 2.5% increase in retail sales year-over-year, surpassing the 2.1% forecast. While the month-over-month figure for retail sales excluding autos and fuel dipped by 0.4%, it was still an improvement over the anticipated 0.8% decline. This suggests consumer spending remains resilient, which could bolster economic growth and impact market sentiment positively. Traders should keep an eye on how this data influences the broader market, particularly in sectors like consumer discretionary and retail stocks. If the trend continues, we might see upward pressure on equities, especially if the S&P 500 holds above key support levels. However, there’s a flip side to consider. A strong retail performance could lead to speculation about tighter monetary policy from the Fed, which might create volatility in both the stock and forex markets. Watch for reactions in the dollar and interest rate-sensitive assets. Key levels to monitor include the S&P 500 at 4,300 and the dollar index around 105. If these levels break, it could signal a shift in market dynamics.
📮 Takeaway
Traders should watch the S&P 500 around 4,300 and the dollar index at 105 for potential volatility following the stronger-than-expected retail sales data.
