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Prior 91At the same time, we also have the business confidence numbers for March as per below:Business confidence 97 vs 96 expectedPrior 97Services confidence 96Prior 96Manufacturing confidence 99Prior 102French household confidence eased back in March as the proportion of households who consider that prices will accelerate over the next twelve months has increased very strongly. That of course due to higher energy prices in relation to the US-Iran conflict.The household perception of future prices jumped sharply from -29 in February to -1 in March. That is the highest reading since September 2022. So, that sort of puts things into perspective of how fearful consumers are feeling about inflationary pressures.Meanwhile, business confidence also dropped slightly at the balance from 97.5 (unrounded) in February to 96.9 (unrounded) in March. That marks the softest reading since October last year and the 24th straight month that business sentiment keeps below the long-term average of 100.The services sector kept more stable alongside retail trade, with employment conditions also holding up. The latest dip comes from the manufacturing sector, which is seen dropping slightly on the month.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
💡 DMK Insight
Business confidence numbers just came in slightly better than expected, and here’s why that matters: The uptick in business confidence to 97 from an expected 96 suggests a more optimistic outlook among businesses, which could translate into increased investment and spending. This is crucial for traders to watch, especially in sectors sensitive to economic growth like consumer discretionary and industrials. However, the decline in manufacturing confidence to 99 from 102 raises a red flag—this could indicate potential headwinds in production that might affect supply chains and overall economic momentum. If households are expecting prices to rise, it could lead to tighter monetary policy sooner than anticipated, impacting interest rates and, consequently, forex markets. Traders should keep an eye on the correlation between these confidence metrics and related assets, particularly EUR/USD, as shifts in sentiment can lead to volatility in the euro. Watch for any significant moves around key technical levels, especially if the euro approaches recent highs or lows. The next few weeks will be critical for gauging whether this confidence translates into real economic activity or if it’s just a temporary blip.
📮 Takeaway
Monitor EUR/USD closely for volatility as business confidence impacts economic outlook; key levels to watch are recent highs and lows.
